UConn Looks to Make Big Splash in Front of Home Crows in Conference Opener

In a very real way, UConn’s Big East opener against Providence late this afternoon at the XL Center is the most impactful game the Huskies have played in a few seasons. Obviously, there is the factor of the program just playing a home game with fans for the first time since early March in 2020, but then you those fans being able to be part of a Big East game for the first time in a decade, and it takes on a whole other dimension. With the opponent a long-time rival that is again having a solid season, the environment at the XL should be raucous. Best of all, Tyrese Martin is guaranteed to return for the Huskies and there is a chance Adama Sanogo will make his return for a few minutes. It will almost definitely be a highly competitive game, and a win would be important for the program, especially considering the Friars resume. UConn is favored by KenPom to win 73-65 and is a -7 betting favorite.

Below is a brief look at how Providence is playing this season and how they will match up with the Huskies.

Performance So Far:

Providence has had an excellent showing in its non-conference slate, as its 10-1 record is tied with Xavier for the best in the Big East. It has three wins against top-40 teams in the KenPom rankings (Wisconsin on the road, Northwestern at a neutral site and No. 18 Texas Tech), and has also beaten a strong Rhode Island squad. All of the Friars wins against power conference teams came in regulation by five points or fewer, as they have clearly demonstrated the ability to close games, something UConn is still struggling with. Providence’s lone loss was a 58-50 neutral defeat to Virginia, which is currently ranked 58^th by KenPom. Overall, it’s non-conference schedule was ranked 143^rd by the site, more than 150 slots higher than UConn. While Providence’s rankings on various stats-based websites are not quite as high as you’d expect based on performance (the team is ranked 57^th on KenPom for instance), it received a lot of votes in the AP poll last week and will surely be ranked if it defeats UConn.

Strengths and Weaknesses

While the highly experienced Friars (five graduate students) have not been dominant in any areas, they have been solid on both sides of the ball in a number of categories. On offense, they are ranked 63^rd in the country and shoot well (effective field goal percentage of 51.4, ranking 115^th in the country and a two-point percentage that ranks 74^th). Providence also rebounds well on the offensive end and are above average at avoiding turnovers. Luckily for UConn, which has been inconsistent with defending the 3-point line, Providence shoots just 32.2% on threes, 215^th in the country. While it does not shoot free throws particularly well, the Friars get to the free throw line a lot and heavily rely on it, scoring just under 23% of their points from the stripe. Providence does an excellent job of sharing and distributing the ball, as their assist rate of 61.3 on the Bartovik stat website is 22^nd in the country. Despite their solid offense, the Friars average just under 71 points per game due to the very slow tempo they play at. Their adjusted tempo and average possession length rank 206^th and 266^th in the country, with this style partially due to the team’s reliance on big man Nate Watson, who is discussed just more below.

Providence’s offence revolves around 6-10, 260-pound senior center Nate Watson, one of the best players in the Big East. The senior center is an absolute beast inside, scoring 15.3 points per game on 64.3% shooting, and his same effective field goal percentage ranks 61^st in the country. Watson is a very disciplined offensive player and has committed just 13 turnovers while avoiding huge foul trouble. While Watson’s rebounding numbers are not huge for a player of his size, he still pulls down 5.5 boards per game. Watson’s biggest weakness is his free throw shooting, as he has shot just 54.5% at the line. Watson has a great senior running mate in the backcourt in Noah Horchler, who brings a reliable inside-out game and is the Friars best rebounder. Horchler is averaging 10.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Horchler, an excellent shooter, has a true shooting percentage of over 60 and is shooting 40.5% from three. He has four double-doubles this season and made multiple threes in five games.

Providence also has two other double-digit scorers in point guard Al Durham (13.5) and small forward AJ Reeves (10.7). Durham, who had scored in double-digits in every game prior to the last two contests, is a somewhat flawed offensive player. His true shooting percentage is just over 40% and Durham has made just 10 threes in 44 attempts (22.7%), a huge drop from last season’s 38%. While Durham averages just under four assists per game, he has also committed three turnovers per game. However, Durham has shot over 80% at the charity stripe. Reeves is a solid overall shooter and has shot 36.4% behind the arc. He has been the team’s hottest player in the last week, scoring a combined 41 points against Vermont and Central Connecticut. Besides the core four for Providence, senior forward Justin Miniya has been a valuable bench piece, averaging 5.6 points and 5.1 rebounds.         

 The Friars also have a solid defense, ranking 71^st in adjusted efficiency on that end according to KenPom. Opponents have averaged 60.5 points and been held under 60 for three consecutive games. With a strong front line anchored by Watson (averaging a block per game), they limit teams to an effective field goal percentage of 45.4 inside the arc, four percentage points under average and ranking 54^th in the country. They also defend the three reasonably well. While Providence forces turnovers at a low rate, its block percentage of 11.9% is 76^th in the country. UConn will have to return to rebounding at a high level on the offensive end, which could be a challenge against a Friars team that is capable of controlling the boards. The Friars are skilled at defending without fouling, as opponents reach the line more than two percentage points below average (15.3). Providence forces opponents to play at its slow tempo and their average possession length ranks 294^th in the nation.

Assessing how UConn Matches Up

Offense

While it’s hard to know his stamina level and how effective Martin can be offensively in his first game back from injury, he has the ability to tilt the advantage towards UConn on the offensive (and defensive end). Martin adds another player who should be able to drive to the hoop and create matchup problems against Providence’s guards and front line. Martin is a solid passer and 3-point shooter, a weapon that UConn desperately needs. His presence will help create more driving lines for the UConn guards, particularly R.J. Cole.

Whether or not Sanogo is able to give any minutes, the Huskies will have their hands full scoring against Watson, who averages a block a game. Isiah Whaley, Martin and Akok Akok will need to find a way to get some points matching up with him, whether that comes in the half-court or off the glass, and UConn’s guards must find a way to neutralize Watson as well. The obvious thing to do would be to get him in foul trouble, but the Huskies can also neutralize the Providence bigs by running efficient ball screens and pick-and-rolls and getting out on fastbreaks. It would also be huge if Whaley and especially Akok could knock down a few perimeter shots and open up space for the rest of the offense. If Sanogo does play, I am just looking for him to give 5-10 reliable minutes where he can hopefully use his size to score over Watson and put him in danger of getting into foul trouble.

In the end, I think UConn’s biggest offensive keys to winning will be to press the tempo, shoot well from the perimeter and get a solid number of offensive rebounds. With Bynum possibly out and Providence not having a ton of depth as a team in general, I believe Martin can help the Huskies wear the Friars out by running off of offensive rebounds and turnovers, with Cole and Andre Jackson leading the way in this regard. UConn has shown over the last two games that it can consistently get open shots against good teams, I am confident they can again do so and that Cole, Jordan Hawkins and Tyler Polley can knock down threes and other perimeter shots with the spacing Martin and possibly Sanogo provide. I am hopeful that Hawkins can build on his performance from three in the last game, while not getting down if he struggles. Finally, the return of Martin will hopefully boost the Huskies offensive rebounding performance, which has been disappointing the last couple of games. It is critical that Whaley and Akok block out and anticipate well and make quality opportunities at the rim. Finally, as always, UConn must take care of the ball and maintain composure if the game is close late.  

On defense, UConn’s success will start with slowing Watson down to at least some extent. As great of a defender as Whaley is, it will be a big challenge for him bodying up against a player the size of Watson while avoiding foul trouble. Ditto Akok, whose body type is not well-suited to covering a player of Watson’s size and length. If Sanogo plays, he can hopefully at least keep Watson in check for a short time, even if it leads to some fouls. Samson Johnson, who has the same height if not girth of Watson, could be huge for UConn in giving extra frontcourt minutes if Sanogo does not play. The Huskies do benefit from the fact that Watson is a very poor free throw shooter even if he forces them into foul trouble. In the end however, the Huskies will need to at least consistently alter the shots of Watson and the Friars other bigs even if they do not get blocks and keep them off the offensive boards, which requires improved boxing out by UConn and a good showing by Martin.

Besides slowing down Watson and to a lesser extent Horchler, UConn’s biggest key to defensive success will be shutting down Reeves and especially Durham. As discussed before, Durham is especially susceptible to turnovers, and good ball pressure will put the pair in danger of committing turnovers and make it more difficult to get the ball to Watson. It will also limit their ability to kick out passes to an open Horchler on the perimeter. While I have generally been happy with Cole’s defense, Jalen Gaffney, Jackson and Hawkins need to keep the Providence guards from blowing past them or getting easy looks at the rim. If Jackson can stay disciplined, his length and athleticism could make ball-handling a nightmare for the Friars guards.

Final Verdict

This game is going to almost definitely be ugly. Providence will do its best to slow the game down, and we know that UConn can be bogged down by opponents and go into stretches where they cannot hit a shot to save their lives. Add that there will be a lot of fouls, and Dan Hurley is going to have to get creative with his lineups and adjustments, especially if Sanogo is not available. Ultimately however, I believe that the return of Martin and the impact he can have in so many different phases of the game and as a leader, coupled with the home court advantage, will allow the Huskies to pull this game out Sanogo or no Sanogo (if he plays, I’m almost certain they win). As long as UConn can limit the Providence guards, they should win by roughly 8-10 points. Can’t wait for tonight!