No. 5 UConn and No. 12 New Mexico State of the WAC should be a very interesting game in the West Regionals and a matchup of teams whose strengths are very similar. The Huskies define themselves largely by their defense and rebounding and the Aggies do the same, with each team especially strong at shot-blocking and defending the rim overall. In addition, each squad has a lot of experience and coaches who have been her before (Chris Jans coaches NMSU). The areas that separate the teams besides the level of competition they faced is UConn’s superior ball-handling, athleticism and free throw shooting, areas which I think can be significant factors to the Huskies winning. All in all, it’s a pretty favorable matchup for the good guys.
Background on New Mexico State’s Season
The Aggies went 24-6 and 13-4 in the regular season before defeating Grand Canyon and Abilene Christian as a No. 4 seed in the WAC Tournament. They rank 86th on offense and 73rd on defense according to KenPom, and their best wins came against Davidson and at Washington State out of conference and then a trio of wins against Grand Canyon. However, NMSU had a number of ugly losses such as at Chicago State (339th in KenPom), Sam Houston State by 25 (143rd) and New Mexico (155th) at home.
New Mexico State, which plays at a similar tempo to UConn), is led by guard Teddy Allen, who was named WAC Conference Player of the Year. Allen, who played earlier in his career for both West Virginia and Nebraska, averaged 19.3 points and 6.8 rebounds and is outstanding inside the arc and at the free throw line, where he shoots 86.5%. Allen is the definition of a volume scorer, putting up over 30 points in four games. Jabari Rice is the only other Aggie who averages double-figures at 12.2 per game and also leads the team in assists with 3.2. Forward Johnny McCants has a very similar game to Isiah Whaley and he is an elite defender, averaging 1.8 blocks per game to go along with 8.5 points and 5.3 rebounds. Right next to him, Will McNair averages 6.7 and 4.9. Jans used a deep rotation during the season, as 11 players averaged more than 10 minutes, and follows the 2-foul rule strictly, meaning a player will be sat down if they pick up two in the first half. While Allen took by far the most 3-pointers on the team, Rice was the most reliable regular 3-point shooter among the players expected to play, shooting 34.2%.
New Mexico State’s defensive shooting numbers were great across the board after adjustments, as it held opponents to a 45.5% effective field goal rate (20th in country), 30% on 3-pointers (24th) and 45.8% on 2-pointers (30th) as well as a block rate of 12.9 (31st). However, the Aggies almost never earned steals, as their percentage ranks 332nd in the country, and they force turnovers on just 16.9% of possessions (266th). The NMSU EFG % of 52.2 is 79th in the country and it shoots 54.2% inside the arc, good for 26th on KenPom, but shoots just 33% on 3-pointers and 69.3% on free throws. Their offensive rebounding percentage of 33.2% is 41st on KenPom. Finally, it turns the ball over on over 20% of possessions and Allen, Rice and McCants average at least two turnovers per game, with Allen at 2.8.
When UConn is on Offense
This is a very good matchup for Sanago, who badly needs to get going after his lackluster offensive play in the Big East Tournament. He has the footwork and strength to score effectively against the 6-10 McNair, his likely defender, and UConn should make a point of trying to get the big bis oy going early. Sanago has shown a consistent ability to bounce back after he has a tough game or two and as long as he makes intelligent decisions with the ball, I think he should have a very good game. I think that Martin is also set up well to have a strong offensive game. While he may have a tough time making 3-pointers on the Aggie D, Martin can clean up on the offensive glass and bully Rice and fellow guard Clayton Henry, both “6-4”, using his size and strength.
While R.J. Cole is significantly smaller than all of the NMSU starting guards (Allen is “6-6”), he has the shot-making skills and basketball IQ to find ways to score against the trio and possibly get them in foul trouble. If Martin struggles from beyond the arc, it would be valuable for Cole to make a couple of threes and just keep the defense honest while giving him more room to operate. It’s hard to know what you’ll get with Andre Jackson offensively from game to game, but his athleticism and size should allow him to get good scoring opportunities if he wants it, especially in transition (more on that just below). Cole, Jackson and Martin should all make a point of trying to attack Allen when they can, as he is not seen as a good defender and foul trouble in the first half could force him out of the game and put the Aggies in trouble. Jalen Gaffney could be a valuable offensive piece in this game when he replaces Cole because of his size and ability to attack the basket along with his tournament experience. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up a couple of points.
With the Aggies capable of shutting down the paint, UConn will have to find ways to get Polley good 3-point looks consistently to help open up the offense. These could come off of screens, in transition, kickouts and similar examples. Polley needs to make sure that he moves without the ball to get open and shouldn’t hesitate to look for ways to score in the midrange or at the rim as well using his size. Polley may be able to do a better job of getting open today versus a Big East Team which is more familiar with how to effectively defend him. If Tyler Hawkins is available and capable of playing around 10-15 minutes, he can also be another 3-point shooting threat as well as a decoy. Finally, Whaley may have to step out of the paint and possibly even behind the line to get a few good looks against McCants.
I believe UConn’s ace in the hole for this game is the opportunity they could have to dominate New Mexico State in transition. It is facing a less athletic and lengthy team that is very susceptible to turnovers, and the Huskies are certainly capable of playing at a high tempo if they choose to do so. Players like Jackson, Cole and Martin are built for playing transition basketball and highly effective at it as long as the Huskies are disciplined. If it becomes a turnover-fest on the Aggies part, I think UConn could run them out of the gym.
When UConn is on Defense
On defense, everything begins and ends with stopping Allen. While he isn’t the most efficient scorer, his shot-making abilities and ability to get into the lane and draw fouls allows him to put up huge numbers and be one of the top mid-major players in the country. It seems like UConn’s optimal strategy will be to trwhoey and push Allen out past the 3-point line and have him take 3-pointers or difficult midrange shots. To do that, the Huskies and specifically Whaley and Sanago will need to communicate well and run the hard hedge to run Allen off of the 3-point line and force him into passes or low-quality shots. The main defenders on Allen will likely be Martin and Jackson, and they both have the size and athleticism to successfully defend Allen if they can be disciplined and not fall for pump-fakes or euro-steps. If Allen ends up taking a lot of 3-pointers, UConn still needs to focus on closing out on him effectively. If Allen is forced into the role of distributor, it could help lead to scoring opportunities, as he is prone to turnovers (2.8 per game). And if UConn can’t stop Allen effectively in the man-to-man, then Hurley has to swallow his pride and either double-team him or switch to new defenses to keep him in check. Make Allen work and think as much as possible on both offense and defense to tire him out, and everything else should fall into place.
Aside from Allen, Rice is the other player UConn will need to key in on, as he is the main distributor for the Aggies. Rice will most likely have some combination of Jackson, Martin and Cole on him, and whomever is guarding him will similarly have to pressure Rice when he has the ball in his hands without fouling and force him into low-percentage shots. I am confident Sanago and Whaley can successfully defend McCants and McNair effectively, and believe that Whaley can outplay McCants because he has a higher offensive ceiling and McCants is extremely prone to turnovers (22.8% turnover rate). While New Mexico State has demonstrated that they are skilled at avoiding having their shots blocked, the combination of Sanago and Whaley is almost definitely better than any other duo the Aggies have seen in conference play, and UConn should be able to block or at least alter a decent number of shots. The Huskies will need to defend Henry closely on the perimeter, as he shoots 37.5% from three.
The Huskies should be able to force plenty of turnovers against New Mexico, especially if they’re intimidated by the environment or come out slow. I’d like to see Hurley press ballhandlers a decent amount, especially at the end if its close. Jackson, Martin and Cole all can press players effectively and force turnovers and Cole is especially adept at nabbing steals from opponents. If UConn can force turnovers and pressure the ball without fouling, defend the rim well and keep Allen somewhat in check, then I think the team will be in fine shape at the end.
In Conclusion
New Mexico is the type of team that could have been a reliable upset pick against the right opponent, especially with a player who can take over the game in Allen. I think that UConn’s strengths match up well to New Mexico State’s, and its overall talent level is higher. When you throw that in with the Aggies turnover issues and mediocre 3-point and foul shooting, there is a stark contrast between the teams. Last but not least, I don’t think this years Huskies squad, especially the seniors, is going to hide from the moment. They are on a mission to prove this is a top program again, and that starts with making some noise in march. New Mexico State will keep it somewhat close with its defense and the play of Allen, but I am comfortable picking UConn to win by somewhere between 8-10 points.
HUSKY NATION 