Tag: Big East

Reviewing UConn’s Team Stats Heading into Final Conference Games

This season has been a dream so far for the UConn program. The 25-3 Huskies have arguably been better than last year’s champions, and certainly a better regular season team. This was demonstrated by them clinching at least a share of the Big East regular season title yesterday, and their ability to win it outright with a win today over Seton Hall. Why I could write thousands of words about the strengths of the team and their performances in particular wins, and will do so the remainder of the season , I thought it would be more interesting to list a series of team stats and metrics that demonstrate UConn’s dominance right now. I will print a similar article on individual players after the Seton Hall game today.Can’t wait to hopefully see the Huskies clinch the outright Big East title today on Senior Day!

  1. Five. That’s the number of players on UConn who are averaging double digits, aka the entire starting lineup. I believe they are the only team in the country whose entire starting lineup is scoring in double digits. Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer are each averaging 15.2 points, Alex Karaban 13.9 (even after a big shooting slump), Donovan Clinigan 12.3 points in just 21 minutes a game, and Stephon Castle 10.9. Hassan Diarra and Samson Johnson are also scoring more than 5 points a game in less than 20 minutes per game.
  2. No matter which way you slice it, the Huskies metrics all point to them as one of the top three teams in the country alongside Purdue and Houston. On Ken Pomeroy’s website, UConn is scoring 125.4 points per 100 possessions (PPP), while allowing 95.6, which is 18th in the country. In Big East play, the team’s PPP numbers are 120.3 and 99.8, which both rank first in the Big East. On Bartovik, they rank 4th and 15th on offense and defense for the full season, and first and fourth on those ends in conference play. On both Bartovik and KenPom, the Huskies are ranked third in the country, just beyond Purdue.
  3. EvanMya.com is the one projection site that rates UConn as the No. 1 team in the country as of March 2nd. The team’s relative ranking, which is based on how it would perform again similarly ranked teams, based on the team’s efficiency ratings and opponent and pace adjustment. UConn’s relative ranking of 28.5 is 0.3 ahead of Purdue. Their 17.7 offensive rate, which relies on PPP against similarly ranked teams, is third in the nation, while their 10.7 defensive rate is ninth.
  4.  KenPom, which is the easiest metrics site to comprehend, has extensive stats for UConn’s play on both offense and defense. The team’s effective field goal percentage, which is a measurement of the 2 and 3-pointers it makes added up (one point is given for 2-pointers and 1.5 for 3-pointers)  and divided by the number of field goals attempted and multiplied by 100, is 56.9% for the season, eighth in the country. The Huskies shoot 58.9% on 2-pointers, also fourth in the country, and 36% on 3-pointers, which is 62nd. UConn rebounds 37.2% of their missed shots, which ranks 10th, and assists on 61.5 % of their made field goals, ranking 11th. The Huskies are also above average on offense in their turnover percentage, free throw percentage, and the percentage of shots they have blocked. In Big East play, UConn  leads the league in offensive rebounding percentage, 3-point percentage and assists/field goals made at 34.6, 37.5&, and 62.4%, respectively. The team is also to three in the league for effective field goal%, 2-point%, block%, and the percentage of free throw attempts they make compared to field goal attempts (32.9% ).
  5. UConn’s defensive metrics on KenPom are also outstanding. They have held opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 45.1%   and 44% on 2-pointers, which ranks fifth and ninth in the country. Its block percentage of 142% is 17th. It has held opponents to 31.6% on 3-pointers, which is 57th. The Huskies are ranked in the top 100 in the percent of offensive rebounds allowed, assists on field goals, and the percentage of 3-pointers opponents take to their overall field goals attempted. In the Big East, they are first in effective field goal percentage (45% ) and the percent of 3-pointers made (31.6%). Dan Hurley’s team is in the top three in 2-point percentage allowed, offensive rebounding percentage, block percentage, assists to field goal percentage, and the percentage of free throw attempts opponents make compared to field goal attempts.
  6. UConn has beaten 18 teams by double-digits and 13 by at least 20 points. At the same time, Dan Hurley has done a much better job of winning close games this season. The Huskies have won seven games by single digits, and three by five or fewer points.
  7. UConn is undefeated in neutral site and home games and 7-3 in away or semi-away games.
  8. The Huskies are 9-3 in Quad 1 games and undefeated in games played in the three lower quadrants. These nine Quad 1 wins are one of the highest numbers for any team in America. They will have two more chances to pick up Quad 1 wins against Marquette and Providence on the road to end the regular season.
  9. UConn is the top-ranked team on Bartovik since February 1st. Much of this is due to their improved defense since Donovan Clinigan re-entered the starting lineup after returning from injury.

Observations About Last Week’s Games: Sanago is Inconsistent, Defensive Breakdowns Against Seton Hall and Questions About 3-point Shooting

This is the first of two articles I am going to write about the UConn men prior to their Big East tournament quarterfinal game against (likely) sixth-seeded Seton Hall (20-9) or No. 11 Georgetown (6-24), arguably the worst power conference team in the country. UConn, which easily swept the Hoyas and split their contests with the Pirates, suffered a frustrating 64-62 loss at Creighton last Tuesday before playing very well on Saturday’s Senior Day against a feisty DePaul squad in the 75-68 win. With their final win, the Huskies earned the tournament’s No. 3 seed when Creighton fell to Seton Hall later that day. The team officially ends the regular season 22-8, 13-6 in Big East play and having won six of seven games. It is the fewest losses a UConn team has had during a full regular season schedule since 2014, the last year it won a championship.      

No one except for R.J. Cole had a particularly effective game in the 64-62 loss to Creighton, which ended up being the only team to sweep the Huskies in conference play. The senior scored 20 points and had four assists, with the only black mark being his 2-7 shooting from three. Tyrese Martin scored 11 and had 5 rebounds but was limited to 25 minutes due to foul trouble and ended up fouling out, and the only other player with more than six points was Tyler Polley, who hit two 3-pointers. UConn’s offensive line was mostly ugly across the board, as it shot just over 40% and went 6-22 from beyond the arc while getting to the line just five times and making only two free throws. It took care of the ball (six turnovers) but had just seven assists. While it had 12 offensive rebounds, the team was ultimately outrebounded 37-33.

I talk a lot more about Adama Sanago below, but offensively he struggled to finish shots and convert on second-chance opportunities against “7-1” Ryan Kalkbrenner and help defenders, ultimately shooting just 6-16 for 13 points, although he had 16 rebounds. Andre Jackson and Isiah Whaley were left open purposefully by the defense as a gambit to force them to make outside shots and it worked, as the two combined to shot just 3-15 for 8 points. Jackson took a number of ugly jump shots in particular and was 0-6 from three. The Huskies shot selection was iffy throughout the game and Sanago and others could not finish shots at the rim. The inconsistent production by the big men and lack of outside shooting was a big factor in why the team trailed 34-24 at halftime, and even after they got it going early in the second half, that deficit and their defensive deficiency’s UConn was experiencing made a comeback win too steep of a hill to climb. It tied the game a couple of times, the last time at 50 on a Martin jumper with 8:18 to go, but never led.

Now about those defensive deficiencies, which again I discuss further below. UConn allowed Creighton, a decent offensive team that was missing its starting point guard and had gotten blown out by 21 against Providence a few days before, to shoot 49% overall and 53.5% on 2-pointers and earn 14 assists against 10 turnovers. In the first half it allowed big man Arthur Kaluma to go off and drain three treys despite being a terrible shooter from deep, and generally was able to beat defenders off the dribble and score in screen and roll action. The Huskies upped their ball pressure at the start of the second half and were able to force enough poor shots and turnovers to come back and tie the game, but the Bluejays and coach Greg McDermott eventually figured things out. McDermott began going to Kalkbrenner in the screen and roll action at the rim, and continued to feed him when adjustments were made. The rest, as they say, is history, with Sanago being the main player successfully targeted by Creighton. Kalkbrenner finished with 22 points, 20 in the second half, on 10-14 shooting and 10 rebounds. Kaluma put up 15 and Ryan Hawkins 13, 6 rebounds and 3 assists.

There was one other big factor that possibly led to the loss. Jordan Hawkins, who had already been hit in the previous game, picked up a concussion on a great screen by Kalkbrenner that the much smaller freshman didn’t see. Hawkins, who was scoreless in five minutes up to that point, had to be removed from the game and is in concussion protocol, meaning he will almost definitely miss the Big East Tournament and could be a question mark for the Huskies first NCAA Tournament game as well. I will talk about the ramifications of this more in the next article, but suffice to say that his absence could cause huge ramifications on both sides of the ball and make it more difficult for the team to hit perimeter shots and space the floor.    

The win over DePaul Saturday went much smoother, as the Huskies controlled the action for most of the game and dominated the paint throughout. Sanago scored 12 of the team’s opening 14 points as he got the ball in excellent scoring position and overpowered defenders, and kept up his dominance on offense and the boards throughout the half, scoring 20 points. Whaley and Martin were also efficient in the first half and Jackson did a strong job of helping to run the offense and on defense. After some lax defense early, UConn tightened up and eventually took a double-digit lead, going into the locker room up 40-29. It continued to play well for most of the second half, with Martin especially doing an excellent job on the board and earning second-chance paints, and led 70-53 with 4:29 to go. Unfortunately, the Huskies continued their habit of taking their foot of the gas and let another inferior opponent make the game closer than it should be. DePaul star Javon Freeman-Liberty finally woke up after being held in check most of the night, and drained multiple threes to help cut the deficit to just five points before UConn closed the game out at the free throw line.

After maybe his most checkered game of the season, Sanago bounced back with 26 points and 11 rebounds on 10-16 shooting. Martin was a wrecking crew with 19 and 16, while Whaley went for 10 and 6. Jackson did a little bit of everything with 7 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists. The only concerns on offense were UConn’s 3-point shooting, as it went 3-12, and the struggles of Cole, who ran the offense effectively but shot 1-9 for 3 points. The team outrebounded DePaul 49-31. The Demon Deacons shot just 39.4% overall but went 10-26 from beyond the arc. Freeman-Liberty had 22 and shot 3-5 from three.

Last week’s games offered plenty of exciting moments and reasons for optimism heading into tomorrow night, as well as some frustrating moments and reasons for pessimism entering the Big East Tournament. As I will discuss more in the next article however, overall, I am very excited to see the Huskies compete at MSG and legitimately believe this squad has the chance to win the whole thing if things fall their way. At their best, they have the athleticism and strength on defense to shut down the paint and alter perimeter shots as well as generate turnovers. On offense, they have the best big man in the Big East and one of the best guards and can score in a variety of ways and be dominant on the fastbreak and offensive boards. Certainly, winning the Big East tournament would be a great accomplishment for Dan Hurley and demonstrate that he is one step closer to making UConn a dominant program again.

Below, I discuss how the Seton Hall and DePaul games demonstrated the strengths and weaknesses of Sanogo’s game, the need for Dan Hurley to make adjustments on defense, the rocky but rewarding development of Andre Jackson and the team’s struggles from beyond the arc, among other topics.

The Ying and Yang of Adama Sanago

At this point, devoted UConn fans understand how important Sango is to the team’s success, and the ramifications it has on the team when he struggles on one or both ends of the court. He is one of the best big men in the country and especially on offense and as a rebounder, which was recognized by him being named to the Big East All-First Team on Monday. And yet when he struggles offensively, he can be a black hole and affect the Huskies spacing, and against certain opponents and big men he can struggle defensively, especially with all the hedging Dan Hurley asks his bigs.

Against Seton Hall, he struggled from the start and everything snowballed from there. On offense, Cole and others were able to get the ball to Sanago, but the Pirates defenders did a strong job of pushing him away from the basket without fouling. The sophomore struggled to finish make shots even if they were of high quality, with a lot of his misses just barely rolling off the rim. Sanago earned just two free throws, making one, and could have done a much better job of trying to force contact or attempting dunks. When he got the ball Sanago almost never passed it out even when he wasn’t in good shooting position, a frustrating habit that has consistently been an offensive weakness. Ultimately, Sanago shot just 6-16 to finish with 13 points and was visibly upset by his struggles. To his credit he was still great on the offensive boards, grabbing 5, and finished with 16 rebounds overall.

Even with Sanogo’s offensive struggles, UConn shot over 47% on 2-pointers and was efficient enough on offense in the second half to pull out a win. It was his weaknesses on defense, especially in the second half, that was probably the biggest factor in the Huskies losing. To be fair, Sanago had 6 blocks and was far from the only player that struggled defensively in the final 10 minutes of the game, and much of his defensive weakness was due to the system UConn uses, which I discuss more below. But in the end, the lasting image of the game for me will be Sanago being out of position or late to get back on Kalkbrenner as he easily made layups or dunks on screen and rolls. The defense decided to stick with Sanago doing hard hedges up near the 3-point line instead of initially defending the paint or playing Kalkbrenner one-on-one and it paid the price. By the end of the game, it was completely clear that Sanago, who played 37 minutes, was spent on both ends.

One great skill of Sanago is that he has repeatedly been able to rebound from subpar performances to play very well in the following game or games. I already discussed his play against DePaul above (26 points on 10-16 shooting and 11 rebounds) and Sanago definitely set the tone early and demonstrated UConn could get off to a strong start and dominate the Demon Deacons inside. He will definitely need to demonstrate this ability if the Huskies advance in tournament play. Sanago is the type of player who can carry the team on a run in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments, but his teammates and coach need to put him in position to succeed and he needs to be willing to involve others on offense.

The Creighton Loss Exposed the Weaknesses UConn Can Suffer from on Both Ends of the Floor

Again and again, the Bluejays have demonstrated to fans and opponents the best methods to beating UConn in different ways. Last week, they demonstrated how its inconsistent shooting, how best to attack the Huskies with screens and rolls and their reluctance to quickly change things up defensively.

On offense, the game showed how difficult it is for UConn to score if Sanago and other bigs are held in check and it is not making shots from the perimeter, as Cole cannot do everything himself. The Pirates invited Jackson and Whaley to take 3-pointers and the pair obliged, combining to go 1-9. Much has already been said about Jackson’s ugly stroke and as conference play as gone on his numbers from beyond the arc have predictably gone down. Whaley is inconsistent at best from beyond 15 feet, and if teams are able to effectively guard Polley and Hawkins on the perimeter then the Huskies are in trouble. It would have ben nice to see Cole and Martin pick up the slack against Seton Hall, but the first shot 2-7 from there and Martin took just one three partly due to his foul trouble. Throw in a mix of good defense on Sanago, limiting fastbreak opportunities and rebounding well and rebounding well defensively, all of which the Pirates did, and you are almost guaranteed a win.

As I said earlier, UConn was able to rebound in the second half against Seton Hall because of its effectiveness from midrange and ability to avoid turnovers. However, it was burned from deep by Kulama in the first half, falling behind by as much as 16. After the Huskies fought back to tie the game multiple times, the Pirates figured out how to effectively attack them in the screen and roll repeatedly for baskets, as well as beat them one-on-one when necessary. Because of how frequently UConn hedges, it has occasionally had trouble limiting offenses that have the size and speed to counter them, which Seton Hall certainly does. The defense has also occasionally struggled to defend guards off the dribble or strong big men one-on-one and unfortunately did this in the loss.

While I cannot guarantee whether switching up the defense would have resulted in a win against Seton Hall, I share the belief with many fans that Dan Hurley is too slow to make defensive adjustments. Yes, he has started to make more adjustments in certain games recently, such as playing a zone for short stretches or doubling a player who was giving his defender trouble. And the success of Hurley’s defenses at UConn speaks for itself. Still, he failed to go to some type of zone or double Kalkbrenner to try and limit the Pirates success on screen and rolls in the final 10 minutes of the game and instead watched them score easily again and again. It was inexplicable and Hurley deserved every ounce of criticism he got for these decisions. In tournament play, he cannot afford to fail to be flexible and not give his players as many resources as they need to succeed and win. I just hope Hurley realizes that he will need to roll the dice at times.

Against DePaul, UConn overcame its continued struggles from deep by bullying its opponent inside. However, Seton Hall has at least some of the same qualities as Creighton that gave the Huskies trouble, as does Villanova if the Huskies advance. It will be fascinating to see if they can overcome this and win.

UConn is Again Off from Three

After multiple games where the Huskies shot well from deep and were able to pull off a key win streak, the Huskies crashed back down to Earth the last two games, shooting 9-34 treys (26.5%). With Hawkins almost totally absent due to his concussion, the only other reliable 3-point shooters were Polley and Martin and they only took eight between the two of them, although they hit five. Cole (2-11, Jackson (1-7) and Whaley (1-4) all struggled from beyond the arc. UConn ended the Big East season having hit 35.7% of their threes, good for fourth.

The Huskies will need to be able to hit threes against Seton Hall and whatever opponents it faces in tournament play from there. It is doable against the Pirates, who ranked middle of the pack in the percentage of 3-pointers it allowed in conference play. They were unstoppable in the January loss to SHU, shooting 14-23, but just went 4-18 from deep in the win against it three weeks ago. UConn will need to consistently play inside out, get 3-point opportunities off of fastbreaks and find ways to get Polley open (he has the flu but will almost definitely play). While Sanago and Cole will always be options A and B, the Huskies need to find ways to get Polley open (he had the flu but is going to play as of Wednesday morning) and Martin to take more 3-pointers. With Hawkins out, Hurley may need to sacrifice his defense and rebounding to a small extent and play at times with more shooters such as Akok Akok and Jalen Gaffney until he returns. Considering UConn’s offense is pretty vanilla much of the time, it will need to hit enough 3-pointers to keep defenses honest in its remaining games.  

 We Saw the Best and Worst of Andre Jackson

The sophomore shooting guard demonstrated both how infuriating and fun he is to watch against Creighton and DePaul. Against the Bluejays, he took a few inexplicable threes and missed all six attempts (I find it hard to believe that Hurley gave him the go-ahead to take those shots), likely in an effort to help the Huskies overcome Sanogo’s struggles. While he may have been deliberately left open to take perimeter shots, Jackson would have been better off attacking defenders off the dribble and trying to get to the rim for easy looks and to draw fouls. The size of Creighton and Jackson playing on the perimeter more than usual helped nullify his rebounding skills and he ended the game with just three, all offensive. Jackson continued to handle and pass the ball well and finished with 3 assists against 1 turnover, but his playmaking ability was limited by the sow halfcourt game both teams were playing. Creighton’s focus on forcing Jackson to beat it from outside and general ability to play at a tempo where he is much less effective was the perfect antidote. He needs to realize what he can do offensively if his 3-point shot isn’t following against a similar opponent.

On the other hand, against DePaul Jackson flashed all the skills that make him such a nightmare for opponents to prepare for. He had 8 rebounds and 4 assists with only one turnover, played solid defense and scored 7 points, getting to the rim for two baskets and knocking down a quality 3-point opportunity. Jackson was in his element throughout the game as he got a chance to run the floor and set Sanago and Whaley up for good looks inside. As always, his passing was a pleasure to watch.

Even if Jackson doesn’t score a ton of points, he could be very effective in tournament play, especially against opponents who haven’t seen him before. His court vision and athleticism are second to none, and Jackson has improved his decision-making and accuracy on passes a ton in the second portion of the Big East schedule. He can almost always be relied upon for some rebounding and dominate on the I boards against the right opponent, and Jackson has legitimately become a strong defender, even if he can sometimes fall into playing “matador” defense. Going forward, Jackson just needs to trust himself and not try to do too much. To me, that means he should be more aggressive attacking the hoop and rely less on his 3-point shot, continue to not force passes to teammates, avoid foul trouble and play with a consistently high motor the entire game. I am not sure Jackson can be a reliable force on the tournament stage. But if he is, he can take over multiple games.

Observations on Villanova and Marquette Games: The Huskies Show Their Best and Worst Qualities Against Tough Opponents

I am not going to waste a lot of time going into full details about how UConn’s loss at Villanova and win over Marquette played out, as I am sure readers (and me myself as well) are more interested in my more direct observations on these two games and how the Huskies performances contrasted each other, as well as other observations. Suffice to say, I felt very down on the team after the Villanova loss and the win over Marquette somewhat renewed my confidence in them. I’ll have a much clearer picture of my feelings after tonight’s contest at Xavier.

While UConn “only” lost by 11 (85-74) against the No. 15 Wildcats last Sunday, the game was nowhere near that close. They possess one of the best offenses in the country and are a particularly tough matchup for the Huskies due to playing with four guys on the perimeter, shooting and ball movement. Despite possessing more size than Villanova and top scorer Justin Moore being out with an injury, UConn was helpless to stop the Wildcats inside, particularly Eric Dixon (24 points and 12 rebounds), and had defensive breakdowns there as well as on the perimeter. Once Isiah Whaley and Adama Sanago each picked up two fouls in the opening minutes and UConn shot 36% in the first half, it was clear that it was on its way to being blown out against the Big East’s premier program.

The Huskies were visibly desperate to win at home Tuesday after consecutive losses to Creighton and ‘Nova and facing an opponent that had won eight of nine. This paid off with an 80-72 win, their most important of the season and one of their most complete efforts. The offense was very efficient in the first half, shooting 59% percent as the team went up 46-36. While the offense slowed down in the second half, UConn continued to dominate the boards and their defense was solid. The Huskies outrebounded the Golden Eagles 46-27 and had 20 second-chance points to Marquette’s 11. They closed the game out well after Marquette got within three points twice in the second half, going on a 9-0 run with six minutes right to take a nine-point lead and essentially lock up the win. As discussed more below, Sanago and Tyrese Martin had big games, two players who needed to get going for UConn.

As the Huskies look to maintain momentum against Xavier, let’s examine observations I had about the two most recent games pertaining to both overall performances as well as those of certain players.

It’s Amazing How Different a Team Looks When It’s Knocking Down Shots, Isn’t it?

The UConn offense looked pretty putrid in the first three quarters, scoring just 44 points to fall behind by 19. In the first half and much of the third quarter, it chose poor shots and the offense looked sluggish, featuring very little ball movement or well=executed sets. With the Huskies again struggling from the perimeter for the third consecutive game and Whaley and Sanago dealing with first-half foul trouble, UConn could not stretch the floor and operate inside efficiently. With the frequent absence of Whaley and Sanago and others not picking up the slack, it did not get its usual putback opportunities and got killed on the boards overall against a Villanova team that focuses much less on getting rebounds, grabbing just 20 boards to the Wildcats 28. The Huskies offense finally woke up in the fourth, scoring 30 points and shooting over 60% against a Villanova squad that had taken their foot off the gas. It did a better job of sharing and handling the ball and finally began to hit perimeter shots, with Jordan Hawkins knocking down three. Cole would finish with 25 points and Martin and Sanago 14. Still, UConn had no shot on winning after such a bad start and allowing Villanova to shoot 59.2% and have three players score 16 or more points.

The Huskies offensive performance to end Sunday’s game was a harbinger of things to come against Marquette, especially in its first half. The offense was excellent from the opening tip and especially caught fire 10 minutes in when UConn established control with a 17-3 run that gave it a 38-24 lead. The Huskies moved the ball very well and were able to open up space for Sanago to operate by getting Hawkins and Tyler Polley going (the pair each knocked down multiple 3-pointers). Sanago bullied defenders to the tune of 14 first-half points, and UConn’s excellent defensive rebounding allowed it to get down the floor quickly and score 15 fastbreak points.

While the offense slowed down in the second half as the game became much more physical and it had cold stretches, Sanago and Martin continued to score effectively and the Huskies managed to go on valuable runs. They especially did an outstanding job of forcing contact and getting to the free throw line and knocked down 20 of 23 attempts (87%), including 6-8 by Sanago.

UConn ended up shooting 47.4% and had five players score at least nine points. Martin, who was a beast on the boards and did a great job of maneuvering through the defense to get good shots, finished with 18, 15 rebounds and 3 assists on 8-15 shooting. Sanago went for 24 and 15 and Hawkins and Polley each scored eight. While the Huskies finished with 14 turnovers, six were by Sanago and they generally did a better job of handling the ball and finding open teammates at the rim or beyond the arc. Considering the level of the opponent, this was arguably the team’s best offensive performance so far.      

Owning the Glass

While Villanova is no slouch at rebounding, UConn’s inability to win at or least be competitive on the boards Sunday was extremely surprising. The rebounding gap of -8 was the largest UConn has had this season. A lot of different factors played out in these struggles. Villanova did an excellent job of boxing out despite the Huskies height advantage and consistently beat them to long rebounds or loose balls, resulting in many more second-chance opportunities for the Wildcats (they had 20 offensive rebounds to UConn’s 13. The foul troubles of Sanago and Whaley meant there were less opportunities for putbacks, and neither Andre Jackson or Martin stepped up and earned offensive rebounds. Most importantly, Villanova just looked stronger and more athletic than UConn and the effort level just wasn’t there for the Huskies, especially as they fell behind a ton. Hurley was extremely frustrated by UConn’s poor rebounding and overall effort after the game and he had good reason to be.

As I already wrote, UConn had a huge advantage on the boards against Marquette (46-27), a quality rebounding time with good size. While the Huskies were strong on the offensive boards, where they beat the Golden Eagles 14-10 and got five each from Sanago and Martin, it was the defensive boards where they made the biggest difference, beating Marquette 32-17. Behind Sanago and Martin, who had 10 each on that end, the Huskies were consistently able to limit Marquette to one shooting opportunity. Even more than with offensive rebounds, their defensive ones led to fastbreak baskets or quality shots and opportunities at the free throw line. It was clear that UConn’s rebounding neutralized the Golden Eagles fast paced offense and eventually wore them down. Outside of the team’s 17-3 run, the signature sequence of the game for the Huskies came late in the second up eight with 1:47 remaining when the Huskies grabbed three consecutive offensive rebounds before Jackson was finally fouled and made one of two. That sequence basically clinched the game and demonstrated the effort and toughness Hurley has been looking for the past few games. Hopefully it will be present against Xavier as well.

Starting and Ending Games Well is Critical to Success

While UConn actually started the game OK at Villanova, trailing just 15-12 when the second TV timeout came 8:29 in, the foul trouble of Whaley and Sanago and UConn’s poor shot selection and inability to hit a jumper weighed on them. Villanova began dominating the Huskies inside and Gillespie closed out the first half with two 3-pointers.  The Huskies started the half OK and cut the deficit to seven, but the Wildcats went on a 12-0 run to seal the game with roughly 12 minutes to go, dominating the Huskies on both ends.

I’ve already gone into detail about UConn’s solid offensive start against Marquette and their ability to go on a big run to establish a decisive first half lead. However, it was its ability to counter every run Marquette went on in the second half that won it the game. When Greg Elliot and Daryl Morsell hot threes and Oso Ighodaro made two free throws to cut the Huskies lead to 53-52 with 11:56 remaining, the team made six free throws and Martin hit a jumper while forcing 11 consecutive Marquette misses to push their lead back to 11 with 7:39 to go. The Golden Eagles answered quickly with eight straight points, but a hook shot by Sanago and three from Martin gave UConn a nine point lead, with it closing the game out at the 11. The Huskies showed great composure and found scoring opportunities to maintain the lead. It’s only one game, but this demonstrated to the players, Hurley and fans that they can execute to win games late against quality conference opponents.   

UConn Looks to Make Big Splash in Front of Home Crows in Conference Opener

In a very real way, UConn’s Big East opener against Providence late this afternoon at the XL Center is the most impactful game the Huskies have played in a few seasons. Obviously, there is the factor of the program just playing a home game with fans for the first time since early March in 2020, but then you those fans being able to be part of a Big East game for the first time in a decade, and it takes on a whole other dimension. With the opponent a long-time rival that is again having a solid season, the environment at the XL should be raucous. Best of all, Tyrese Martin is guaranteed to return for the Huskies and there is a chance Adama Sanogo will make his return for a few minutes. It will almost definitely be a highly competitive game, and a win would be important for the program, especially considering the Friars resume. UConn is favored by KenPom to win 73-65 and is a -7 betting favorite.

Below is a brief look at how Providence is playing this season and how they will match up with the Huskies.

Performance So Far:

Providence has had an excellent showing in its non-conference slate, as its 10-1 record is tied with Xavier for the best in the Big East. It has three wins against top-40 teams in the KenPom rankings (Wisconsin on the road, Northwestern at a neutral site and No. 18 Texas Tech), and has also beaten a strong Rhode Island squad. All of the Friars wins against power conference teams came in regulation by five points or fewer, as they have clearly demonstrated the ability to close games, something UConn is still struggling with. Providence’s lone loss was a 58-50 neutral defeat to Virginia, which is currently ranked 58th by KenPom. Overall, it’s non-conference schedule was ranked 143rd by the site, more than 150 slots higher than UConn. While Providence’s rankings on various stats-based websites are not quite as high as you’d expect based on performance (the team is ranked 57th on KenPom for instance), it received a lot of votes in the AP poll last week and will surely be ranked if it defeats UConn.

Strengths and Weaknesses

While the highly experienced Friars (five graduate students) have not been dominant in any areas, they have been solid on both sides of the ball in a number of categories. On offense, they are ranked 63rd in the country and shoot well (effective field goal percentage of 51.4, ranking 115th in the country and a two-point percentage that ranks 74th). Providence also rebounds well on the offensive end and are above average at avoiding turnovers. Luckily for UConn, which has been inconsistent with defending the 3-point line, Providence shoots just 32.2% on threes, 215th in the country. While it does not shoot free throws particularly well, the Friars get to the free throw line a lot and heavily rely on it, scoring just under 23% of their points from the stripe. Providence does an excellent job of sharing and distributing the ball, as their assist rate of 61.3 on the Bartovik stat website is 22nd in the country. Despite their solid offense, the Friars average just under 71 points per game due to the very slow tempo they play at. Their adjusted tempo and average possession length rank 206th and 266th in the country, with this style partially due to the team’s reliance on big man Nate Watson, who is discussed just more below.

Providence’s offence revolves around 6-10, 260-pound senior center Nate Watson, one of the best players in the Big East. The senior center is an absolute beast inside, scoring 15.3 points per game on 64.3% shooting, and his same effective field goal percentage ranks 61st in the country. Watson is a very disciplined offensive player and has committed just 13 turnovers while avoiding huge foul trouble. While Watson’s rebounding numbers are not huge for a player of his size, he still pulls down 5.5 boards per game. Watson’s biggest weakness is his free throw shooting, as he has shot just 54.5% at the line. Watson has a great senior running mate in the backcourt in Noah Horchler, who brings a reliable inside-out game and is the Friars best rebounder. Horchler is averaging 10.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Horchler, an excellent shooter, has a true shooting percentage of over 60 and is shooting 40.5% from three. He has four double-doubles this season and made multiple threes in five games.

Providence also has two other double-digit scorers in point guard Al Durham (13.5) and small forward AJ Reeves (10.7). Durham, who had scored in double-digits in every game prior to the last two contests, is a somewhat flawed offensive player. His true shooting percentage is just over 40% and Durham has made just 10 threes in 44 attempts (22.7%), a huge drop from last season’s 38%. While Durham averages just under four assists per game, he has also committed three turnovers per game. However, Durham has shot over 80% at the charity stripe. Reeves is a solid overall shooter and has shot 36.4% behind the arc. He has been the team’s hottest player in the last week, scoring a combined 41 points against Vermont and Central Connecticut. Besides the core four for Providence, senior forward Justin Miniya has been a valuable bench piece, averaging 5.6 points and 5.1 rebounds.         

 The Friars also have a solid defense, ranking 71st in adjusted efficiency on that end according to KenPom. Opponents have averaged 60.5 points and been held under 60 for three consecutive games. With a strong front line anchored by Watson (averaging a block per game), they limit teams to an effective field goal percentage of 45.4 inside the arc, four percentage points under average and ranking 54th in the country. They also defend the three reasonably well. While Providence forces turnovers at a low rate, its block percentage of 11.9% is 76th in the country. UConn will have to return to rebounding at a high level on the offensive end, which could be a challenge against a Friars team that is capable of controlling the boards. The Friars are skilled at defending without fouling, as opponents reach the line more than two percentage points below average (15.3). Providence forces opponents to play at its slow tempo and their average possession length ranks 294th in the nation.

Assessing how UConn Matches Up

Offense

While it’s hard to know his stamina level and how effective Martin can be offensively in his first game back from injury, he has the ability to tilt the advantage towards UConn on the offensive (and defensive end). Martin adds another player who should be able to drive to the hoop and create matchup problems against Providence’s guards and front line. Martin is a solid passer and 3-point shooter, a weapon that UConn desperately needs. His presence will help create more driving lines for the UConn guards, particularly R.J. Cole.

Whether or not Sanogo is able to give any minutes, the Huskies will have their hands full scoring against Watson, who averages a block a game. Isiah Whaley, Martin and Akok Akok will need to find a way to get some points matching up with him, whether that comes in the half-court or off the glass, and UConn’s guards must find a way to neutralize Watson as well. The obvious thing to do would be to get him in foul trouble, but the Huskies can also neutralize the Providence bigs by running efficient ball screens and pick-and-rolls and getting out on fastbreaks. It would also be huge if Whaley and especially Akok could knock down a few perimeter shots and open up space for the rest of the offense. If Sanogo does play, I am just looking for him to give 5-10 reliable minutes where he can hopefully use his size to score over Watson and put him in danger of getting into foul trouble.

In the end, I think UConn’s biggest offensive keys to winning will be to press the tempo, shoot well from the perimeter and get a solid number of offensive rebounds. With Bynum possibly out and Providence not having a ton of depth as a team in general, I believe Martin can help the Huskies wear the Friars out by running off of offensive rebounds and turnovers, with Cole and Andre Jackson leading the way in this regard. UConn has shown over the last two games that it can consistently get open shots against good teams, I am confident they can again do so and that Cole, Jordan Hawkins and Tyler Polley can knock down threes and other perimeter shots with the spacing Martin and possibly Sanogo provide. I am hopeful that Hawkins can build on his performance from three in the last game, while not getting down if he struggles. Finally, the return of Martin will hopefully boost the Huskies offensive rebounding performance, which has been disappointing the last couple of games. It is critical that Whaley and Akok block out and anticipate well and make quality opportunities at the rim. Finally, as always, UConn must take care of the ball and maintain composure if the game is close late.  

On defense, UConn’s success will start with slowing Watson down to at least some extent. As great of a defender as Whaley is, it will be a big challenge for him bodying up against a player the size of Watson while avoiding foul trouble. Ditto Akok, whose body type is not well-suited to covering a player of Watson’s size and length. If Sanogo plays, he can hopefully at least keep Watson in check for a short time, even if it leads to some fouls. Samson Johnson, who has the same height if not girth of Watson, could be huge for UConn in giving extra frontcourt minutes if Sanogo does not play. The Huskies do benefit from the fact that Watson is a very poor free throw shooter even if he forces them into foul trouble. In the end however, the Huskies will need to at least consistently alter the shots of Watson and the Friars other bigs even if they do not get blocks and keep them off the offensive boards, which requires improved boxing out by UConn and a good showing by Martin.

Besides slowing down Watson and to a lesser extent Horchler, UConn’s biggest key to defensive success will be shutting down Reeves and especially Durham. As discussed before, Durham is especially susceptible to turnovers, and good ball pressure will put the pair in danger of committing turnovers and make it more difficult to get the ball to Watson. It will also limit their ability to kick out passes to an open Horchler on the perimeter. While I have generally been happy with Cole’s defense, Jalen Gaffney, Jackson and Hawkins need to keep the Providence guards from blowing past them or getting easy looks at the rim. If Jackson can stay disciplined, his length and athleticism could make ball-handling a nightmare for the Friars guards.

Final Verdict

This game is going to almost definitely be ugly. Providence will do its best to slow the game down, and we know that UConn can be bogged down by opponents and go into stretches where they cannot hit a shot to save their lives. Add that there will be a lot of fouls, and Dan Hurley is going to have to get creative with his lineups and adjustments, especially if Sanogo is not available. Ultimately however, I believe that the return of Martin and the impact he can have in so many different phases of the game and as a leader, coupled with the home court advantage, will allow the Huskies to pull this game out Sanogo or no Sanogo (if he plays, I’m almost certain they win). As long as UConn can limit the Providence guards, they should win by roughly 8-10 points. Can’t wait for tonight!

Huskies Show the Right and Wrong Ways to Win in Important Pair of Games

A lot of UConn fans have already put the West Virginia and St. Bonaventure games behind them and are looking forward to Saturday’s game against Providence and the returns of Tyrese Martin and Adama Sanogo, with Martin all but guranteed to play and Sanago possibly. However, I think it will be good to take a look back at last week’s games against West Virginia and St. Bonaventure to see the lessons we can take from the Huskies successes and struggles, and how they will affect the matchup with the Flyers. Below, enjoy five observations on the games, with the Mountaineers and Bonnies.

 UConn finally proved it could win a tight game on Saturday after failing Wednesday

A major question at the beginning of the season was if UConn could consistently win close games that were decided late, something the program has struggled to do for multiple seasons. In the first 10 games of the season, the answer to that question was no, with the Huskies blowing late leads to lose in regulation to Michigan State and WVU and also doing so in the overtime wins against Auburn and VCU. While UConn could use the excuse of not having Isiah Whaley, Martin and Sanogo in at least one or two losses, part of being a quality team is winning despite injuries. It wasn’t just that UConn lost these games, but how they lost them. The team looked sloppy and nervous in all the aforementioned games and did a poor job of handling the ball and getting high-quality shots. Throughout these late-game stretches, the big theme throughout was poor basketball IQ on both ends of the floor. It didn’t help that any adjustments Danny Hurley made either were not visible or didn’t work, such as in inbounding situations. I have to admit that after the Huskies blew their lead against West Virginia, I was extremely frustrated and worried that they did not have the mental fortitude to beat St. Bonaventure. I was wrong.

Against St. Bonaventure, UConn executed well on offense in the final minutes to deny a comeback opportunity, making just enough plays on defense to ensure the victory. Led by R.J. Cole, the Huskies did an excellent job of handling the ball and showed a lot of smarts in attacking the basket and taking advantage of the Bonnies inability to avoid fouling. The plays in the last two minutes which defined the wins were 3-point plays on by Jalen Gaffney and Cole, which were both scored in traffic, and a dagger three by Tyler Polley with 44 seconds remaining, set up by good ball movement, to put the Huskies up by nine. The Bonnies missed two jumpers in the final two minutes. Dan Hurley appeared to do a good job of communicating with his players from the bench and making clear the offensive plays they should run during the stretch run. In the end, UConn’s finishing kick on Saturday ensured they would earn their second signature out-of-conference win before Big East play begins.

The Huskies x-Factors Come Through One out of Two Games

With Sanogo and Martin out every player besides Cole are x-factors for UConn to some extent, which mostly makes sense when you don’t have many players who can consistently generate their own shots. For the purpose of this exercise however, I am looking at Jordan Hawkins, Akok Akok and Andre Jackson as a trio who can help determine how far the Huskies ultimately can go.

In the 59-56 loss at West Virginia, this trio combined for just 14 points (10 by Jackson) and three assists on 6-17 shooting while committing five turnovers. Hawkins struggled in particular, going 0–7 from the field and committing four turnovers in 28 minutes. While Hawkins got a lot of good looks especially from three, he rushed his shots at times and continued to display his frustration. The freshman’s struggles shooting arguably caused him to lose confidence and affected his ball handling. Hawkins again lost control of his dribble multiple times and did not protect the ball well. While Akok is not normally looked to as a scoring threat, UConn needs more from him on that end with Sanogo and Martin out, and the junior was again MIA. Akok missed multiple shots close to the basket and went 1-5 from the field overall, and generally looked disengaged on offense. While he did an admirable job on the boards and finished with 10 (5 offensive), he failed to box out multiple times late in the game, allowing the Mountaineers to get to key offensive rebounds they converted into points. Akok did not show the strength and agility fans were hoping for and finished with just one block. Finally, while Jackson was actually fairly effective on offense and hit one of the team’s three threes, he was not quite as effective on the boards as usual and still played out of control at times, making a costly turnover late. Jackson was also consistently beat on defense or out of position, an issue that plagued Hawkins as well. If just one of these players had been better (especially if Hawkins had hit a few shots to allow for more spacing), UConn would almost definitely have won.

If the performances of Hawkins, Akok and Jackson were instrumental in the loss on Wednesday, they redeemed themselves on Saturday. The trio combined for 32 points on 11-18 shooting and 16 rebounds, and went 4-7 from three. They also did a much better job of controlling the ball, committing just three turnovers. Jackson had arguably the best all-around game of any Husky, finishing with nine points, 11 rebounds and five assists while adding a steal. Jackson did an excellent job of playing under control and sharing the ball, while still using his explosiveness to get to the rim and deliver crisp passes to open teammates. Jackson showed much better shot selection than normal, using his speed to get easy scores at the basket, and ultimately hit all three of his shots. Jackson’s defense was also strong, as it was clear his pressure and length made it difficult for Bonnie players to get open shots in the paint.

Akok had 12 points, five rebounds and three blocks and went 5-6 from the field, knocking down two 3-pointers. This was the first strong performance Akok has had against a high-quality team this season. The 6-9 forward showed good touch around the rim, but it was the two gorgeous threes he knocked down that were most exciting to see. Akok is now 8-13 from behind the arc this season, and if UConn can consistently make sure to get him shots from deep Akok could be a nightmare for teams to prepare for if he shoots well from there. Akok was outstanding on defense, consistently blocking and altering shots and limiting the impact of Osun Ossuniyi, an elite big man himself. When Whaley and Akok are playing the frontcourt together, they are absolutely one of the best defensive tandems in the Big East.                     

Finally, Hawkins got the much-needed boost of confidence he has been searching for multiple games and ultimately finished with 11 points in 20 minutes. After having missed 16 consecutive shots, Hawkins finally nailed an upon jumper with just over 11 minutes remaining in the game to give the Huskies a 46-39 lead.  He immediately responded with two more threes in the following two minutes which anchored a 13-0 run that gave UConn control of the game. The joy and confidence these shots gave him was very visible. Hawkins showed excellent form on these shots and moved well without the ball to get open, and it is clear Hurley believes in him and gives Hawkins the green light to shoot. If Hawkins can build up his confidence and be more selective in the shots he chooses, there is no reason he cannot became an excellent long-range shooter. Combine that with improved ball handling and defense, then Hawkins should be one of the Huskies very best players by the end of the season.

Jackson, Akok and Hawkins each of the power to elevate UConn at their best. Jackson’s speed and athleticism makes him a nightmare in transition for opponents, and he can be an excellent passer and rebounder and a dangerous defensive presence. Akok is the one traditional big on the Huskies who can stretch the floor and shoot from the perimeter, and is an accomplished shot blocker and rebounder. Finally, Hawkins can be the pure shooter and second quality ballhandler UConn needs at guard. These players have a lot of questions to answer, most prominently Jackson’s skill as a scorer, Akok’s durability and Hawkins ball-handling and confidence issues. But with their inexperience and developing games, the x-factors have nowhere to go but up in Big East play. Their success will largely determine the program’s both this year and the seasons to come.

R.J. Cole Continues to be the Man

It has been a tough challenge for Cole to be both the primary ball-handler and scorer with Martin and Sanogo out, and there were times against both West Virginia and St. Bonaventure where he struggled mightily. In the end however, Cole was there to make the big play for the Huskies when they needed it.

Cole scored 29 combined points against the Mountaineers and Bonnies on 11-26 shooting and had six assists. Cole again demonstrated his strength and ability to score in the points in the games as well as his passing. Against the Bonnies (15 points), Cole worked around his struggles behind the arc by getting to the free throw line, hitting 4-6, and also did a very efficient job of running the offense. In both games, Cole played solid defense and had three steals against West Virginia. His ability to get to the line and score late against the Bonnies demonstrated his ability to take over for the Huskies when needed. As the season as gone on, Cole has asserted himself more and more as a team leader, and his communication skills and ability to give teammates confidence were visible in these games. Cole will likely have to shoulder less of the load as Martin and Sanogo return, but no one questions whom the Huskies alpha dog is.

Some Things Change, but UConn’s 3-point Shooting Woes Stay the Same

Entering the season, UConn’s ability to consistently shoot well behind the arc was a big question, and so far the team has failed that test. The team is shooting 35% from three on the season, but against high-quality teams (major conference and A-10 opponents), that rate drops to 28.2%. Since the team shot the lights out from three against Auburn, it has shot 22.7% against teams in that category. UConn shot 3-21 against the Mountaineers and 8-27 against the Bonnies. These struggles can be chalked up to a few factors, with examples being the Huskies just not making open shots, proven marksmen like Polley and Cole underperforming (as well as Hawkins), and the team either rushing or forcing shots instead of being more discerning in their selection. You have to believe that these numbers will come up at least somewhat due to the law of averages. However, UConn will continue to lose some close games (like they did against the Mountaineers) if they don’t improve from behind the arc from game to game.

The Huskies are Ultimately on the Right Track

Before the week began, I was expecting UConn to go 1-1, as I thought it would be difficult for UConn to win against a good team on the road, after not playing an away game with fans for roughly a year and a half. As tough as the loss to West Virginia was, it demonstrated where the team needs to improve to beat good opponents, and the Huskies used those lessons to outplay St. Bonaventure. It seems like there is a lot of momentum around the team and it has confidence, and UConn has at times showed the much-ballyhooed depth people said would be one of the team’s greatest strengths. Tomorrow is going to be a crazy environment at home against a big-time rival in Providence, and UConn is better than the Friars on paper and matches up well with them. With Martin and possibly Sanogo back, a win and good performance by the x-factors could be huge and put the team in good position to start Big East Play with a winning streak.