Tag: game preview

The Start of Something: No. 5 Huskies Trying to Get Their First Tourney win in 6 Seasons Against No. 12 NMSU

No. 5 UConn and No. 12 New Mexico State of the WAC should be a very interesting game in the West Regionals and a matchup of teams whose strengths are very similar. The Huskies define themselves largely by their defense and rebounding and the Aggies do the same, with each team especially strong at shot-blocking and defending the rim overall. In addition, each squad has a lot of experience and coaches who have been her before (Chris Jans coaches NMSU). The areas that separate the teams besides the level of competition they faced is UConn’s superior ball-handling, athleticism and free throw shooting, areas which I think can be significant factors to the Huskies winning. All in all, it’s a pretty favorable matchup for the good guys.

Background on New Mexico State’s Season

The Aggies went 24-6 and 13-4 in the regular season before defeating Grand Canyon and Abilene Christian as a No. 4 seed in the WAC Tournament. They rank 86th on offense and 73rd on defense according to KenPom, and their best wins came against Davidson and at Washington State out of conference and then a trio of wins against Grand Canyon. However, NMSU had a number of ugly losses such as at Chicago State (339th in KenPom), Sam Houston State by 25 (143rd) and New Mexico (155th) at home.     

New Mexico State, which plays at a similar tempo to UConn), is led by guard Teddy Allen, who was named WAC Conference Player of the Year. Allen, who played earlier in his career for both West Virginia and Nebraska, averaged 19.3 points and 6.8 rebounds and is outstanding inside the arc and at the free throw line, where he shoots 86.5%. Allen is the definition of a volume scorer, putting up over 30 points in four games. Jabari Rice is the only other Aggie who averages double-figures at 12.2 per game and also leads the team in assists with 3.2. Forward Johnny McCants has a very similar game to Isiah Whaley and he is an elite defender, averaging 1.8 blocks per game to go along with 8.5 points and 5.3 rebounds. Right next to him, Will McNair averages 6.7 and 4.9. Jans used a deep rotation during the season, as 11 players averaged more than 10 minutes, and follows the 2-foul rule strictly, meaning a player will be sat down if they pick up two in the first half. While Allen took by far the most 3-pointers on the team, Rice was the most reliable regular 3-point shooter among the players expected to play, shooting 34.2%.

New Mexico State’s defensive shooting numbers were great across the board after adjustments, as it held opponents to a 45.5% effective field goal rate (20th in country), 30% on 3-pointers (24th) and 45.8% on 2-pointers (30th) as well as a block rate of 12.9 (31st). However, the Aggies almost never earned steals, as their percentage ranks 332nd in the country, and they force turnovers on just 16.9% of possessions (266th). The NMSU EFG % of 52.2 is 79th in the country and it shoots 54.2% inside the arc, good for 26th on KenPom, but shoots just 33% on 3-pointers and 69.3% on free throws. Their offensive rebounding percentage of 33.2% is 41st on KenPom. Finally, it turns the ball over on over 20% of possessions and Allen, Rice and McCants average at least two turnovers per game, with Allen at 2.8.

When UConn is on Offense

This is a very good matchup for Sanago, who badly needs to get going after his lackluster offensive play in the Big East Tournament. He has the footwork and strength to score effectively against the 6-10 McNair, his likely defender, and UConn should make a point of trying to get the big bis oy going early. Sanago has shown a consistent ability to bounce back after he has a tough game or two and as long as he makes intelligent decisions with the ball, I think he should have a very good game. I think that Martin is also set up well to have a strong offensive game. While he may have a tough time making 3-pointers on the Aggie D, Martin can clean up on the offensive glass and bully Rice and fellow guard Clayton Henry, both “6-4”, using his size and strength.

While R.J. Cole is significantly smaller than all of the NMSU starting guards (Allen is “6-6”), he has the shot-making skills and basketball IQ to find ways to score against the trio and possibly get them in foul trouble. If Martin struggles from beyond the arc, it would be valuable for Cole to make a couple of threes and just keep the defense honest while giving him more room to operate. It’s hard to know what you’ll get with Andre Jackson offensively from game to game, but his athleticism and size should allow him to get good scoring opportunities if he wants it, especially in transition (more on that just below). Cole, Jackson and Martin should all make a point of trying to attack Allen when they can, as he is not seen as a good defender and foul trouble in the first half could force him out of the game and put the Aggies in trouble. Jalen Gaffney could be a valuable offensive piece in this game when he replaces Cole because of his size and ability to attack the basket along with his tournament experience. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up a couple of points.

With the Aggies capable of shutting down the paint, UConn will have to find ways to get Polley good 3-point looks consistently to help open up the offense. These could come off of screens, in transition, kickouts and similar examples. Polley needs to make sure that he moves without the ball to get open and shouldn’t hesitate to look for ways to score in the midrange or at the rim as well using his size. Polley may be able to do a better job of getting open today versus a Big East Team which is more familiar with how to effectively defend him.  If Tyler Hawkins is available and capable of playing around 10-15 minutes, he can also be another 3-point shooting threat as well as a decoy. Finally, Whaley may have to step out of the paint and possibly even behind the line to get a few good looks against McCants.

I believe UConn’s ace in the hole for this game is the opportunity they could have to dominate New Mexico State in transition. It is facing a less athletic and lengthy team that is very susceptible to turnovers, and the Huskies are certainly capable of playing at a high tempo if they choose to do so. Players like Jackson, Cole and Martin are built for playing transition basketball and highly effective at it as long as the Huskies are disciplined. If it becomes a turnover-fest on the Aggies part, I think UConn could run them out of the gym.

When UConn is on Defense

On defense, everything begins and ends with stopping Allen. While he isn’t the most efficient scorer, his shot-making abilities and ability to get into the lane and draw fouls allows him to put up huge numbers and be one of the top mid-major players in the country. It seems like UConn’s optimal strategy will be to trwhoey and push Allen out past the 3-point line and have him take 3-pointers or difficult midrange shots. To do that, the Huskies and specifically Whaley and Sanago will need to communicate well and run the hard hedge to run Allen off of the 3-point line and force him into passes or low-quality shots. The main defenders on Allen will likely be Martin and Jackson, and they both have the size and athleticism to successfully defend Allen if they can be disciplined and not fall for pump-fakes or euro-steps. If Allen ends up taking a lot of 3-pointers, UConn still needs to focus on closing out on him effectively. If Allen is forced into the role of distributor, it could help lead to scoring opportunities, as he is prone to turnovers (2.8 per game). And if UConn can’t stop Allen effectively in the man-to-man, then Hurley has to swallow his pride and either double-team him or switch to new defenses to keep him in check. Make Allen work and think as much as possible on both offense and defense to tire him out, and everything else should fall into place.

Aside from Allen, Rice is the other player UConn will need to key in on, as he is the main distributor for the Aggies. Rice will most likely have some combination of Jackson, Martin and Cole on him, and whomever is guarding him will similarly have to pressure Rice when he has the ball in his hands without fouling and force him into low-percentage shots. I am confident Sanago and Whaley can successfully defend McCants and McNair effectively, and believe that Whaley can outplay McCants because he has a higher offensive ceiling and McCants is extremely prone to turnovers (22.8% turnover rate). While New Mexico State has demonstrated that they are skilled at avoiding having their shots blocked, the combination of Sanago and Whaley is almost definitely better than any other duo the Aggies have seen in conference play, and UConn should be able to block or at least alter a decent number of shots. The Huskies will need to defend Henry closely on the perimeter, as he shoots 37.5% from three.

The Huskies should be able to force plenty of turnovers against New Mexico, especially if they’re intimidated by the environment or come out slow. I’d like to see Hurley press ballhandlers a decent amount, especially at the end if its close. Jackson, Martin and Cole all can press players effectively and force turnovers and Cole is especially adept at nabbing steals from opponents. If UConn can force turnovers and pressure the ball without fouling, defend the rim well and keep Allen somewhat in check, then I think the team will be in fine shape at the end.

In Conclusion

New Mexico is the type of team that could have been a reliable upset pick against the right opponent, especially with a player who can take over the game in Allen. I think that UConn’s strengths match up well to New Mexico State’s, and its overall talent level is higher. When you throw that in with the Aggies turnover issues and mediocre 3-point and foul shooting, there is a stark contrast between the teams. Last but not least, I don’t think this years Huskies squad, especially the seniors, is going to hide from the moment. They are on a mission to prove this is a top program again, and that starts with making some noise in march. New Mexico State will keep it somewhat close with its defense and the play of Allen, but I am comfortable picking UConn to win by somewhere between 8-10 points.  

UConn Looks to Make Big Splash in Front of Home Crows in Conference Opener

In a very real way, UConn’s Big East opener against Providence late this afternoon at the XL Center is the most impactful game the Huskies have played in a few seasons. Obviously, there is the factor of the program just playing a home game with fans for the first time since early March in 2020, but then you those fans being able to be part of a Big East game for the first time in a decade, and it takes on a whole other dimension. With the opponent a long-time rival that is again having a solid season, the environment at the XL should be raucous. Best of all, Tyrese Martin is guaranteed to return for the Huskies and there is a chance Adama Sanogo will make his return for a few minutes. It will almost definitely be a highly competitive game, and a win would be important for the program, especially considering the Friars resume. UConn is favored by KenPom to win 73-65 and is a -7 betting favorite.

Below is a brief look at how Providence is playing this season and how they will match up with the Huskies.

Performance So Far:

Providence has had an excellent showing in its non-conference slate, as its 10-1 record is tied with Xavier for the best in the Big East. It has three wins against top-40 teams in the KenPom rankings (Wisconsin on the road, Northwestern at a neutral site and No. 18 Texas Tech), and has also beaten a strong Rhode Island squad. All of the Friars wins against power conference teams came in regulation by five points or fewer, as they have clearly demonstrated the ability to close games, something UConn is still struggling with. Providence’s lone loss was a 58-50 neutral defeat to Virginia, which is currently ranked 58th by KenPom. Overall, it’s non-conference schedule was ranked 143rd by the site, more than 150 slots higher than UConn. While Providence’s rankings on various stats-based websites are not quite as high as you’d expect based on performance (the team is ranked 57th on KenPom for instance), it received a lot of votes in the AP poll last week and will surely be ranked if it defeats UConn.

Strengths and Weaknesses

While the highly experienced Friars (five graduate students) have not been dominant in any areas, they have been solid on both sides of the ball in a number of categories. On offense, they are ranked 63rd in the country and shoot well (effective field goal percentage of 51.4, ranking 115th in the country and a two-point percentage that ranks 74th). Providence also rebounds well on the offensive end and are above average at avoiding turnovers. Luckily for UConn, which has been inconsistent with defending the 3-point line, Providence shoots just 32.2% on threes, 215th in the country. While it does not shoot free throws particularly well, the Friars get to the free throw line a lot and heavily rely on it, scoring just under 23% of their points from the stripe. Providence does an excellent job of sharing and distributing the ball, as their assist rate of 61.3 on the Bartovik stat website is 22nd in the country. Despite their solid offense, the Friars average just under 71 points per game due to the very slow tempo they play at. Their adjusted tempo and average possession length rank 206th and 266th in the country, with this style partially due to the team’s reliance on big man Nate Watson, who is discussed just more below.

Providence’s offence revolves around 6-10, 260-pound senior center Nate Watson, one of the best players in the Big East. The senior center is an absolute beast inside, scoring 15.3 points per game on 64.3% shooting, and his same effective field goal percentage ranks 61st in the country. Watson is a very disciplined offensive player and has committed just 13 turnovers while avoiding huge foul trouble. While Watson’s rebounding numbers are not huge for a player of his size, he still pulls down 5.5 boards per game. Watson’s biggest weakness is his free throw shooting, as he has shot just 54.5% at the line. Watson has a great senior running mate in the backcourt in Noah Horchler, who brings a reliable inside-out game and is the Friars best rebounder. Horchler is averaging 10.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Horchler, an excellent shooter, has a true shooting percentage of over 60 and is shooting 40.5% from three. He has four double-doubles this season and made multiple threes in five games.

Providence also has two other double-digit scorers in point guard Al Durham (13.5) and small forward AJ Reeves (10.7). Durham, who had scored in double-digits in every game prior to the last two contests, is a somewhat flawed offensive player. His true shooting percentage is just over 40% and Durham has made just 10 threes in 44 attempts (22.7%), a huge drop from last season’s 38%. While Durham averages just under four assists per game, he has also committed three turnovers per game. However, Durham has shot over 80% at the charity stripe. Reeves is a solid overall shooter and has shot 36.4% behind the arc. He has been the team’s hottest player in the last week, scoring a combined 41 points against Vermont and Central Connecticut. Besides the core four for Providence, senior forward Justin Miniya has been a valuable bench piece, averaging 5.6 points and 5.1 rebounds.         

 The Friars also have a solid defense, ranking 71st in adjusted efficiency on that end according to KenPom. Opponents have averaged 60.5 points and been held under 60 for three consecutive games. With a strong front line anchored by Watson (averaging a block per game), they limit teams to an effective field goal percentage of 45.4 inside the arc, four percentage points under average and ranking 54th in the country. They also defend the three reasonably well. While Providence forces turnovers at a low rate, its block percentage of 11.9% is 76th in the country. UConn will have to return to rebounding at a high level on the offensive end, which could be a challenge against a Friars team that is capable of controlling the boards. The Friars are skilled at defending without fouling, as opponents reach the line more than two percentage points below average (15.3). Providence forces opponents to play at its slow tempo and their average possession length ranks 294th in the nation.

Assessing how UConn Matches Up

Offense

While it’s hard to know his stamina level and how effective Martin can be offensively in his first game back from injury, he has the ability to tilt the advantage towards UConn on the offensive (and defensive end). Martin adds another player who should be able to drive to the hoop and create matchup problems against Providence’s guards and front line. Martin is a solid passer and 3-point shooter, a weapon that UConn desperately needs. His presence will help create more driving lines for the UConn guards, particularly R.J. Cole.

Whether or not Sanogo is able to give any minutes, the Huskies will have their hands full scoring against Watson, who averages a block a game. Isiah Whaley, Martin and Akok Akok will need to find a way to get some points matching up with him, whether that comes in the half-court or off the glass, and UConn’s guards must find a way to neutralize Watson as well. The obvious thing to do would be to get him in foul trouble, but the Huskies can also neutralize the Providence bigs by running efficient ball screens and pick-and-rolls and getting out on fastbreaks. It would also be huge if Whaley and especially Akok could knock down a few perimeter shots and open up space for the rest of the offense. If Sanogo does play, I am just looking for him to give 5-10 reliable minutes where he can hopefully use his size to score over Watson and put him in danger of getting into foul trouble.

In the end, I think UConn’s biggest offensive keys to winning will be to press the tempo, shoot well from the perimeter and get a solid number of offensive rebounds. With Bynum possibly out and Providence not having a ton of depth as a team in general, I believe Martin can help the Huskies wear the Friars out by running off of offensive rebounds and turnovers, with Cole and Andre Jackson leading the way in this regard. UConn has shown over the last two games that it can consistently get open shots against good teams, I am confident they can again do so and that Cole, Jordan Hawkins and Tyler Polley can knock down threes and other perimeter shots with the spacing Martin and possibly Sanogo provide. I am hopeful that Hawkins can build on his performance from three in the last game, while not getting down if he struggles. Finally, the return of Martin will hopefully boost the Huskies offensive rebounding performance, which has been disappointing the last couple of games. It is critical that Whaley and Akok block out and anticipate well and make quality opportunities at the rim. Finally, as always, UConn must take care of the ball and maintain composure if the game is close late.  

On defense, UConn’s success will start with slowing Watson down to at least some extent. As great of a defender as Whaley is, it will be a big challenge for him bodying up against a player the size of Watson while avoiding foul trouble. Ditto Akok, whose body type is not well-suited to covering a player of Watson’s size and length. If Sanogo plays, he can hopefully at least keep Watson in check for a short time, even if it leads to some fouls. Samson Johnson, who has the same height if not girth of Watson, could be huge for UConn in giving extra frontcourt minutes if Sanogo does not play. The Huskies do benefit from the fact that Watson is a very poor free throw shooter even if he forces them into foul trouble. In the end however, the Huskies will need to at least consistently alter the shots of Watson and the Friars other bigs even if they do not get blocks and keep them off the offensive boards, which requires improved boxing out by UConn and a good showing by Martin.

Besides slowing down Watson and to a lesser extent Horchler, UConn’s biggest key to defensive success will be shutting down Reeves and especially Durham. As discussed before, Durham is especially susceptible to turnovers, and good ball pressure will put the pair in danger of committing turnovers and make it more difficult to get the ball to Watson. It will also limit their ability to kick out passes to an open Horchler on the perimeter. While I have generally been happy with Cole’s defense, Jalen Gaffney, Jackson and Hawkins need to keep the Providence guards from blowing past them or getting easy looks at the rim. If Jackson can stay disciplined, his length and athleticism could make ball-handling a nightmare for the Friars guards.

Final Verdict

This game is going to almost definitely be ugly. Providence will do its best to slow the game down, and we know that UConn can be bogged down by opponents and go into stretches where they cannot hit a shot to save their lives. Add that there will be a lot of fouls, and Dan Hurley is going to have to get creative with his lineups and adjustments, especially if Sanogo is not available. Ultimately however, I believe that the return of Martin and the impact he can have in so many different phases of the game and as a leader, coupled with the home court advantage, will allow the Huskies to pull this game out Sanogo or no Sanogo (if he plays, I’m almost certain they win). As long as UConn can limit the Providence guards, they should win by roughly 8-10 points. Can’t wait for tonight!

Previewing the First-Round NCAA Tournament Game Against Maryland: Five things to watch for

Five long years after UConn was in the NCAA tournament, the program is finally back where it belongs. In year three of Dan Hurley’s rebuild, he has the 15-8 Huskies competing in March Madness. This is despite a crazy regular season that featured significant injury issues and multiple COVID-19 pauses and cancelled games. Led by James Bouknight, UConn is No. 7 in the East region and will play No. 10 Maryland (16-13) out of the Big 10. Even after losing to Creighton in the semifinals of the Big East tournament, the Huskeies are a trendy Final Four pick largely because of going 11-3 this season with Bouknight. As we now however, they are defined by much more than just one player.

UConn and Maryland is definitely a fascinating matchup and will likely be a close game throughout. While both teams play at a very slow pace, on offense they are otherwise very different. The Terrapins are extremely guard-oriented (four of their five leading scorers are guards and they regularly play five-out), while the Huskies are led by a singular scorer and frequently score many of their points in the paint. In addition, Maryland rarely puts any effort into offensive rebounding and is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, while UConn is one of the best. Both teams are high-quality defensive squads, with the Huskies defense ranked 24th in KenPom and the Terrapins 27th. Both teams have players who won Defensive Player of the Year in their conferences (Isiah Whaley and Darryl Morsell, who will primarily guard Bouknight). All signs point to the contest being a slow paced and bare-knuckle affair. Y

Can Bouknight score effectively against Morsell?

Did I just say the Huskies were more than one player? Is this the most juicy matchup of the game? Yes. Morsell, a “6-5” senior guard, had a defensive ratting of 99.2 and 1.3 defensive win shares this seazon. He fits the mold of the long, physical guards whfo have given Bouknight trouble this season, with examples being Marquette’s Koby McEwan and Damian Jefferson of Creighton. Bouknight must concentrate on not forcing shots and scoring within the flow of the offense, likely on jump shots. At the same time, he needs to be able to share the ball with his teammates when he is pressured, which he did a poor job of doing last game (granted, no one else was making shots for much of the game).

In UConn’s rcent losses with Bouknight, he has shown a tendancy og getting easily frustrated and losing concentration when defenders are heavily physical with him. This has led to a pattern of costly misses and turnovers. Bouknight cannot do this against Morsell. If he is struggling and or the Huskies are losing, their best player still needs to keep his cool and be a leader on the floor.

How well can UConn rebound on the offensive end, and can they take advantage of their opportunities?

This game is tailor-made for the Huskies to have a huge advantage on the boards. They are sixth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.8%, while Maryland is solid but unspectacular on the defensive boards. In contrast its percentage is 20.9%, 327th in the country. The Terrapins make a conscious effort to get back on defense after taking shots to allow them to shut down transition opportunities for opponents, a strategy that has worked more often than not.

UConn has a golden opportunity to bounce back from its poor performance on the boards against Creighton. If it can limit to Maryland to one shot per possession and regularly get second-chance opportunities on the other end, then the Huskies will be in very good shape to win. The one catch is that they regularly struggle to score at the rim, even on bunnies and putback opportunities. If that happens, this will be a very frustrating night.

Can UConn outperform Maryland from behind the arc?

The Terrapins are not a great 3-point shooting team, but they are a strong one and consistently emphasize scoring from beyond arc and on the peremiter in general. In Big-10 play, they took the highest percentage of threes for any team at 37.4%, and shot 34.6%, good for fifth in the league. Donta Scott, a forward, shoots 43.7% from three on the season, and leading scorer Eric Ayala (14.9 points per game) shoots 33.5%. Meanwhile, UConn was an average 3-point shooting team this season but is extremely inconsistent. Bouknight has shot just 30.3% from three since returning, and Tyrese Martin has made only one in the last six games. In addition, Tyler Polley has gone just 6-19 from behind the arc in the last three games.

The Huskies defend the three very well, limiting opponents to 31.6% from behind the arc. Maryland can make it difficult for them though, as their guards are bigger than UConn’s. If the Huskies regularly use the hard hedge on defense, will Adama Sanogo and Whaley be forced to defend the Terrapins guards from deep? Will R.J. Cole be able to effectively defend on thepereimeter if needed despite a height difference? On the other end, Maryland does not defend the three particularly well. Can Polley, Cole and others hit a few threes to get momentum and open up the offense, especially early? It will be fascinating to see how things play out.

How effective can Cole be?

Cole was cleared two days ago to play after being in concusion protocol for a few days. When he came out against Creighton with less than five minutes ago due to falling onto the floor and getting cut, a five-point quickly slipped away and UConn ultimately lost 11-3. Cole has been great in the last eight games, averaging 15 points, 5.1 assists and 1.3 steals, and the team will need him to be at full strength and run the offense efficiently. At the same time, the junior will need to overcome his lack of size to have a strong defensive game. If Cole is rusty and ineffective, the Huskies have little chance of winning.

Can multiple players have good games?

I’ve already discussed the need for Bouknight and Cole to play well, but they will need others to step up. In particular, Sanogo, Martin and Polley need to provide support on both ends. Sanogo has to find a way to avoid foul trouble so he can provide help on the boards and in guarding the rim, while continuing to play well on offense. This would be the perfect game for Martin to snap out of his offensive funk and hopefully be a third reliable scoring option. Finally, Polley making a few threes, ideally early, would open up the offense in a huge way. Jalen Gaffney could also be valuable on offense if he stays agressive. If UConn could share the ball effectively and at least two of these players perform well, I am very confident it will win.

Previewing the Semifinals Game Against Creighton: Four Things to Watch For

UConn. Creighton. Big East tournament semifinals. What more could you ask for?

Later tonight, the third-seeded Huskies (15-6) play arguably the program’s biggest game since 2014 against the No. 2 Bluejays (19-7), who just destroyed Butler for the second straight game yesterday in the quarterfinals. Of couse, UConn did the same thing in the late game, defeating No. 11 DePaul 94-60. Both teams are coming in playing great basketball, in a contest that seems more like a conference tournament final than semifinal. Add in the fact that the Huskies are looking to get revenge after two close losses to Creighton in the regular season, and the game adds even more intrigue.

UConn certaintly looked outstanding in all three phases of the game against Butler despite missing James Bouknight for much of the second half due to cramps related to dehydration. Four players scored in double figures, with Tyrese Martin, R.J. Cole and Amanda Sanogo each putting up 14 points. Every player scored, and eight had more than five points. The Huskies did a great job of sharing the ball and pushing the tempo. Cole had eight assists and three other players had at least three, and the team committed just eight turnovers. UConn’s atleticism was on constant display, with multiple highlight-reel dunks.

The Huskies also continued to dominate the boards for the third consecutive game. UConn had 52 rebounds overall and 24 offensive to the Deamon Deacons 32. It grabbed 29 of DePaul’s 36 missed shots and 24 of their own 38, and ultimately finished with an offensive rebounding rate of 53.3%. Martin had 20 rebounds for a double-double and Whaley grabbed eight. Finally, the Huskies defense was very efficient, holding DePaul to 36.8% shooting and turning it over 15 times. UConn shut down star guard Charlie Moore for the third time this season, limiting him to eight points on 3-9 shooting.

To beat Creighton, the Huskies will have to outplay them in all these phases as well. Below, I talk about the importance of UConn’s defense shutting down Creighton’s guards, especially from three, its need to score in the paint and rebound well, and the status of Bouknight.

(1) How well can UConn’s defense guard the peremiter?

Creighton has an elite offensive team, ranking ninth in the country in offensive rating via KenPom and second in conference play in points per game. The Bluejays have a very balanced offense with five players averaging double figures, led by Marcus Zegarowski. Where its most dangerous however, is behind the arc, where they have three players shooting 40 percent or more (Zegarowski, Damien Jefferson, Mitchell Blalock). In its 87-56 win against Butler on Thursday, Creighton shot 13-24 from three.

UConn must limit the amount of open 3-point looks the Bluejays get, and the defenders cannot get caught up in screens or consistently fail to revolve over on shooters. Two ways they can do this is by limiting the playmaking of Zegarowski, which Cole was able to do in the first game between the teams, and by causing turnovers (Creighton averages 11.3 per game in conference). If the game disolves into a shootout, the Huskies will be in trouble.

(2) Will UConn be able to win the battle in the paint and on the boards?

On paper, the Huskies definitely have the advantage down low with Isiah Whaley, Sanogo, and Josh Carlton, with Martin providing them assistance. On offense, they have an efficient scorer in Sanogo, and all of the aforementioned guys can score at the rim and off of missed shots. UConn has been dominating the offensive boards and can continue to do so against Creighton, which is not known for its rebounding. However, the Huskies have to do a better job of scoring at the rim and especially on second opportunities then they did against DePaul, as they regularly failed to score off offensive rebounds on Thursday night. It will be important for UConn to get to the line regularly and finish through contact.

On defense, the Huskies need to stay disciplined in the paint and avoid foul trouble, especially from red-hot Sanogo. They must do a better job of staying on the floor and not biting on faked shots, even if this means the the team gets fewer blocks. The guards need to avoid being beaten on drives and pressure Zegarowski and ball handlers so that the Bluejays have few easy layup opportunities. If Andre Jackson can avoid foul trouble, he can provide much-needed length to slow down Creighton’s players and help clog the passing lanes.

(3) Can UConn make enough 3-pointers to win?

If the Huskies get into a total 3-point shootout, it’s unlikely they will have a chance. If they are able to limit Creighton on the peremiter however, they will still need to make key threes when needed to gurantee a victory. UConn struggled from three against DePaul, especially in the second half, and will need to take smarter shots and not rush opportunities. It would especially be huge if either Bouknight or Martin got going from behind the arc. If UConn is running its offense efficiently there should be good opportunities for Tyler Polley, and if nothing else he can be a key decoy and draw defenders out of the middle.

(4) Will Bouknight be aAt or close to 100 percent?

Although it initially looked bad when Bouknight had to come out in the second half, it seems like it was just a bad case of the cramps and it was reported that he recovered fine. It’s likely Bouknight will start the game, but Hurley and UConn have to closely watch Bouknight’s stamina and make sure he is hydrated properly. If the sophomore’s athleticism and mobility is limited, the path to winning becomes much tougher.

Previewing the DePaul Game: Four Things to Watch For

Hello Husky fans, it’s Big East tournament time! It’s great to have the program back in the Big East tournament for the first time since 2013, and it feels even better when UConn is considered one of the favorites for the championship. I am not going to be doing game observations on each game (unless the team sadly loses in the quarterfinals) and instead cover the two or three games as a whole if the Huskies advance past Thursday. I will write similar game previews to this however, and also provide observations on the tournament as a whole on Twitter/Facebook. I am so excited for the chance to write about the tournament, and be on the edge of my seat in each game.

First up, the Huskies get to play DePaul at 9:00 for the third time this season after the No. 11 Deamon Deacons upset Providence 70-62 late Wednesday night. Javon Freeman-Liberty and Charlie Moore each scored 21 points, and DePaul held Providence to 35.1% shooting and outrebounded the Friars 46-35. The Deamon Deacons, who entered the tournament having lost nine of 10 games, improved to 5-13. UConn defeated DePaul 82-61 with Bouknight and 60-53 on January 11th just after he was injured. The winner will play either No. 2 CrnOeighton or No. 10 Butler in the second game on Friday.

Below, I have five things to watch for in the game relating to how the teams match up, what UConn is looking for from certain players, and the ramifications for each team based on the outcome.

(1) Will UConn’s “other guards” play at a high level?

In the two wins against DePaul, Cole did an excellent job of shutting down their top scorer Charlie Moore, holding him to just 17 total points on 24 attempts. Moore has been playing his best basketball as of late, scoring 20 points in three of the last five games and, and had 21 and seven rebounds against Providence. Javon Freeman-Liberty is a strong second bannana for the Deamon Deacons and also had 21 against the Friars. Cole needs to again play strong defense on Moore while also making it hard for him to make plays for Freeman-Liberty and others. At the same time, Jackson and Gaffney need to avoid foul trouble to give Bouknight adequate help in guarding Freeman-Liberty. I believe Cole as well as Gaffney and especially Jackson (with his great length) can slow down the two, but if Moore and Freeeman-Liberty can go off and get some help, DePaul will make life difficult for the UConn defense.

Cole will have to continue to play at a high level to keep the offense humming against a strong Deamon Deacons defense. It would be nice to see his shooting touch return after going just 1-7 against Georgetown, but Cole doesn’t have to have 20 points for UConn to win as long as he’s handling the ball well and creating good scoring opportunities for teammates. I’m actually more interested to see how Gaffney plays after one of the best games of his career on Saturday (15 points on 6-6 shooting and three 3-pointers). The sophomore has shown more aggressiveness and great athleticism recently, and if he continues to play well the Huskies should win comfortably. Jackson has taken no shots and has just three total points in the last two games, and I think it is imperative that Hurley sets up some scoring opportunities for him early so he gets engaged on offense and does more than just pass.

Suffice to say, I am not worried about Bouknight on either end.

(2) Can UConn make threes?

DePaul is holding teams to 31.9% shooting from three in the Big East, good for second in the conference. UConn is fifth in the conference at 34.4%, but we all know how inconsistent they have been from behind the arc throughout the season. The Huskies were great from three against a team that defends them well in Georgetown (12-28 for 42.9%). If they can shoot near that rate on Thursday, then it will open op scoring opportunities in the paint and for Bouknight and Cole and the team will easily win. It will especially be important for UConn to find ways for Tyler Polley to get open and make some open looks, as he will no doubt be closely guarded. However, if the team struggles from three, then a lot of pressure will be put on Bouknight and the big men to bail them out and the game could be a nail-biter.

(3) Can Tyrese Martin and the bigs perform well on both ends?

Amada Sanogo, Isiah Whaley and Josh Carlton each had strong performances agaist Georgetown, and Sanogo and Carlton did a solid job of avoiding foul trouble. It will be important for the experienced Whaley to have a strong all-around game and avoid foul trouble so pressure can be taken off Sanogo in his first tournament go-around. Similarly,it would be great for UConn if Carlton could provide 10-15 effective minutes, especially if either Sanogo or Whaley is struggling. In a perfect world, Akok Akok could also give the Huskies 5-10 good minutes and another excellent defensive presence. The bigs and Martin will need to shut down DePaul’s secondary scoring threats and give the Deamon Deacons nowhere to go on offense if either Moore or Freeman-Liberty are not scoring. DePaul is a strong rebounding team like UConn, and if UConn wins the battle of boards it will be in great position to win, even if it struggles to make shots. Finally, I would like to see Martin pick it up on offense a little bit and start giving the Huskies a reliable third scoring threat. Since the return of Bouknight, Martin has fallen off on offense, especially from deep.

(4) Can Bouknight building a mark for himself in tournament play?

Everybody whose been watching knows that Bouknight has already proved himself to be one of the best players the program has ever seen in just two years. Tonight is the start of a chance for him to to start leading UConn to a huge program accomplishment (first Big East confence tournament championship since 2011) and make people realize he is one of the best players in the country. I certaintly think Bouknight will answer this call.