Five long years after UConn was in the NCAA tournament, the program is finally back where it belongs. In year three of Dan Hurley’s rebuild, he has the 15-8 Huskies competing in March Madness. This is despite a crazy regular season that featured significant injury issues and multiple COVID-19 pauses and cancelled games. Led by James Bouknight, UConn is No. 7 in the East region and will play No. 10 Maryland (16-13) out of the Big 10. Even after losing to Creighton in the semifinals of the Big East tournament, the Huskeies are a trendy Final Four pick largely because of going 11-3 this season with Bouknight. As we now however, they are defined by much more than just one player.
UConn and Maryland is definitely a fascinating matchup and will likely be a close game throughout. While both teams play at a very slow pace, on offense they are otherwise very different. The Terrapins are extremely guard-oriented (four of their five leading scorers are guards and they regularly play five-out), while the Huskies are led by a singular scorer and frequently score many of their points in the paint. In addition, Maryland rarely puts any effort into offensive rebounding and is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, while UConn is one of the best. Both teams are high-quality defensive squads, with the Huskies defense ranked 24th in KenPom and the Terrapins 27th. Both teams have players who won Defensive Player of the Year in their conferences (Isiah Whaley and Darryl Morsell, who will primarily guard Bouknight). All signs point to the contest being a slow paced and bare-knuckle affair. Y
Can Bouknight score effectively against Morsell?
Did I just say the Huskies were more than one player? Is this the most juicy matchup of the game? Yes. Morsell, a “6-5” senior guard, had a defensive ratting of 99.2 and 1.3 defensive win shares this seazon. He fits the mold of the long, physical guards whfo have given Bouknight trouble this season, with examples being Marquette’s Koby McEwan and Damian Jefferson of Creighton. Bouknight must concentrate on not forcing shots and scoring within the flow of the offense, likely on jump shots. At the same time, he needs to be able to share the ball with his teammates when he is pressured, which he did a poor job of doing last game (granted, no one else was making shots for much of the game).
In UConn’s rcent losses with Bouknight, he has shown a tendancy og getting easily frustrated and losing concentration when defenders are heavily physical with him. This has led to a pattern of costly misses and turnovers. Bouknight cannot do this against Morsell. If he is struggling and or the Huskies are losing, their best player still needs to keep his cool and be a leader on the floor.
How well can UConn rebound on the offensive end, and can they take advantage of their opportunities?
This game is tailor-made for the Huskies to have a huge advantage on the boards. They are sixth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.8%, while Maryland is solid but unspectacular on the defensive boards. In contrast its percentage is 20.9%, 327th in the country. The Terrapins make a conscious effort to get back on defense after taking shots to allow them to shut down transition opportunities for opponents, a strategy that has worked more often than not.
UConn has a golden opportunity to bounce back from its poor performance on the boards against Creighton. If it can limit to Maryland to one shot per possession and regularly get second-chance opportunities on the other end, then the Huskies will be in very good shape to win. The one catch is that they regularly struggle to score at the rim, even on bunnies and putback opportunities. If that happens, this will be a very frustrating night.
Can UConn outperform Maryland from behind the arc?
The Terrapins are not a great 3-point shooting team, but they are a strong one and consistently emphasize scoring from beyond arc and on the peremiter in general. In Big-10 play, they took the highest percentage of threes for any team at 37.4%, and shot 34.6%, good for fifth in the league. Donta Scott, a forward, shoots 43.7% from three on the season, and leading scorer Eric Ayala (14.9 points per game) shoots 33.5%. Meanwhile, UConn was an average 3-point shooting team this season but is extremely inconsistent. Bouknight has shot just 30.3% from three since returning, and Tyrese Martin has made only one in the last six games. In addition, Tyler Polley has gone just 6-19 from behind the arc in the last three games.
The Huskies defend the three very well, limiting opponents to 31.6% from behind the arc. Maryland can make it difficult for them though, as their guards are bigger than UConn’s. If the Huskies regularly use the hard hedge on defense, will Adama Sanogo and Whaley be forced to defend the Terrapins guards from deep? Will R.J. Cole be able to effectively defend on thepereimeter if needed despite a height difference? On the other end, Maryland does not defend the three particularly well. Can Polley, Cole and others hit a few threes to get momentum and open up the offense, especially early? It will be fascinating to see how things play out.
How effective can Cole be?
Cole was cleared two days ago to play after being in concusion protocol for a few days. When he came out against Creighton with less than five minutes ago due to falling onto the floor and getting cut, a five-point quickly slipped away and UConn ultimately lost 11-3. Cole has been great in the last eight games, averaging 15 points, 5.1 assists and 1.3 steals, and the team will need him to be at full strength and run the offense efficiently. At the same time, the junior will need to overcome his lack of size to have a strong defensive game. If Cole is rusty and ineffective, the Huskies have little chance of winning.
Can multiple players have good games?
I’ve already discussed the need for Bouknight and Cole to play well, but they will need others to step up. In particular, Sanogo, Martin and Polley need to provide support on both ends. Sanogo has to find a way to avoid foul trouble so he can provide help on the boards and in guarding the rim, while continuing to play well on offense. This would be the perfect game for Martin to snap out of his offensive funk and hopefully be a third reliable scoring option. Finally, Polley making a few threes, ideally early, would open up the offense in a huge way. Jalen Gaffney could also be valuable on offense if he stays agressive. If UConn could share the ball effectively and at least two of these players perform well, I am very confident it will win.
HUSKY NATION 