Tag: New Mexico State

A State of Shock: My Initial Reaction to UConn Losing to NMSU

After the final buzzer of the UConn men’s 70-63 upset NCAA tourney loss to No. 12 New Mexico State last Thursday, I wasn’t angry. Rather, I was just numb. How could the fifth-seeded Huskies allow Teddy Allen to completely take over for the Aggies from start to finish, especially in the final minutes? Why did the offense look so rudderless in the first half and not have any Husky play well from start to finish? Where were the adjustments by Dan Hurley and the players on both ends? These are just a few of the questions I had as the game went along and it started to look like UConn could lose in March Madness for the second consecutive year as a higher seed.

Entering the game, my idiot self thought that there was very little chance the Huskies lost to NMSU. Their strengths (rebounding, shot-blocking and defense in the paint, scoring at the rim) was strong, while vulnerabilities like poor ball-handling and 3-point shooting were more than capable of being exploited by UConn. While I knew Allen, the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) Player of the Year, would be a handful to stop, I believed that there wasn’t enough scoring punch around him and that the defense would have a lot of options for guarding Allen that could cause him to play inefficiently. Even if the Huskies struggled on offense themselves, I thought at best it would be a close, low-scoring win. From there, I believed the team had a very good shot at winning their second-round game. Silly me.

I never imagined Allen was capable of scoring 37 points against a power conference defense that had played at UConn’s level. I knew the “6-4” guard was an excellent shot creator who could beat defenders inside and was money at the free throw line. However, Allen also was a poor ball-handler whom was seen by many as a liability on defense during the regular season. With the Aggies having only one other high-level offensive player (Jabari Rice), I thought that Allen would likely wear down under the Huskies pressure and have little chance of single-handily carrying NMSU to a victory. Allen completely rose to the challenge and then some, and haunted my dreams for the next few days.

After missing his first six shots of the game Allen caught fire for the remainder of the game after Andre Jackson picked up two fouls. The super senior proceeded to go 10-16 overall and hit all 13 of his free throws, ultimately finishing with 37 points. Jackson and none of his teammates were able to stay in front of Allen both inside and beyond the arc, where he went 4-7 despite normally struggling from deep. Allen hit some circus shots and did an outstanding job of drawing contact, especially by using pump fakes and drawing defenders off their feet. Allen drew fouls on two missed 3-pointers in the second half, including a devastating late call on Sanago. Allen scored the final 15 points of the game and justified the cockiness he showed. Meanwhile, Dan Hurley inexplicably shied away from calling defenses to keep the ball out of Allen’s hands at least briefly, from a simple double-team to a box-and-one or 2-1-2 zone. Allen’s success helped open up more opportunities for the Aggies shooters, who shocking went 7-10 on 3-pointers.

The energy and aggressiveness the Aggies showed offensively in the first 20 minutes was completely absent when UConn had the ball. It opened the game 3-11 from the field, and after two 3-pointers by Tyler Polley put the Huskies up 12-8 midway through the first they did very little offensively the remainder of the half. UConn rarely attacked the basket in the first, with Tyrese Martin in particular missing his usual toughness.

With Jordan Hawkins on the bench due to not being cleared for the game because of concussion issues, the team was unable to stretch the floor even more than usual as the strong NMSU defense sagged off of Jackson and Isiah Whaley and encouraged the pair to shoot from the perimeter, where they went 1-5 on threes. This script, which was followed in the last stretch of the season by opponents, resulted in Adama Sanago mostly being bottled up by Johnny McCants and his fellow bigs. Sanago had just nine shot attempts and was inconsistent, scoring 10 points on 4-9 shooting. UConn was outrebounded 17-10 and had just one offensive board in the first half as NMSU did an excellent job blocking bigs out and benefited from a Huskies offense that was largely spread out.  

UConn eventually allowed the Aggies to go on a 12-2 run and take a 10-point lead into halftime, and eventually fell behind by as much as 14 (38-24) at the beginning of the second. The Huskies offense was mostly strong for the remainder of the second half and even tied the game a few times behind R.J. Cole, who was outstanding in the second and finished with 20 after a slow start. In the end, however, their inability to slow down Allen and the big deficit was too much to overcome and NMSU became a bracket buster. UConn finished the game shooting 43.1% and 7-23 from deep.

There was a noticeable lack of adjustments on both ends of the ball during the loss, especially on defense. On offense, Hurley continued to stick with Whaley instead of Polley as his starter at forward. While I understand the idea of starting Whaley in case he was needed to defend Allen, he did not do so in the opening minutes and the Huskies again got off to a poor start on offense, which Polley’s inclusion in the starting lineup could have mitigated. While I will give the Aggies, who usually struggle with ball-handling, credit for avoiding turnovers (they had just 11), UConn still could have done a better job of pushing the tempo on offense off of missed shots, as NMSU generally plays slow on both ends. Finally, I believe Hurley did not make enough use of his timeouts on offense, particularly when Cole was trapped along the sidelines in the final minute, leading to a turnover.

It was on defense that the lack of adjustments by UConn and Hurley stuck out most. I already mentioned the failure to adjust defenses to cover Allen when both Johnson and Martin struggled to, but Whaley could also have been assigned to cover Allen at times in addition to using double-teams or zones. The Huskies could have also pressured more or briefly abandoned the hard hedge for Sanago so that he could have been more available as a shot-blocking threat. At the same time, Hurley could have given Akok Akok a little more floor time to act as a 3-point threat and possibly get blocks from the weak side. In the end, Hurley did not seem to have a variety of options if UConn couldn’t defend Allen 1-on-1 or the Aggies began hitting 3-pointers. This was in contrast to Arkansas coach Eric Musselman in the second round, who said he constantly switched defenses to stop Allen and held him to 12 points in a 53-48 NMSU loss.      

As I will discuss more in a second article, UConn has nothing to be ashamed of. A 22-8 regular season record and semifinal berth in the Big East tournament was a good step forward for the program, and teams are unfortunately inexplicably upset in the NCAA tournament all the time. But Hurley now has an established habit of losing close games at UConn, a deserved reputation as inflexible and the possibility of the program stepping back next year due to a young team and the possible departure of Cole. Two things are sure: The offseason will be crazy, and the fanbase will became extremely restless if the Huskies don’t start winning in March beginning in the next season or two.  

The Start of Something: No. 5 Huskies Trying to Get Their First Tourney win in 6 Seasons Against No. 12 NMSU

No. 5 UConn and No. 12 New Mexico State of the WAC should be a very interesting game in the West Regionals and a matchup of teams whose strengths are very similar. The Huskies define themselves largely by their defense and rebounding and the Aggies do the same, with each team especially strong at shot-blocking and defending the rim overall. In addition, each squad has a lot of experience and coaches who have been her before (Chris Jans coaches NMSU). The areas that separate the teams besides the level of competition they faced is UConn’s superior ball-handling, athleticism and free throw shooting, areas which I think can be significant factors to the Huskies winning. All in all, it’s a pretty favorable matchup for the good guys.

Background on New Mexico State’s Season

The Aggies went 24-6 and 13-4 in the regular season before defeating Grand Canyon and Abilene Christian as a No. 4 seed in the WAC Tournament. They rank 86th on offense and 73rd on defense according to KenPom, and their best wins came against Davidson and at Washington State out of conference and then a trio of wins against Grand Canyon. However, NMSU had a number of ugly losses such as at Chicago State (339th in KenPom), Sam Houston State by 25 (143rd) and New Mexico (155th) at home.     

New Mexico State, which plays at a similar tempo to UConn), is led by guard Teddy Allen, who was named WAC Conference Player of the Year. Allen, who played earlier in his career for both West Virginia and Nebraska, averaged 19.3 points and 6.8 rebounds and is outstanding inside the arc and at the free throw line, where he shoots 86.5%. Allen is the definition of a volume scorer, putting up over 30 points in four games. Jabari Rice is the only other Aggie who averages double-figures at 12.2 per game and also leads the team in assists with 3.2. Forward Johnny McCants has a very similar game to Isiah Whaley and he is an elite defender, averaging 1.8 blocks per game to go along with 8.5 points and 5.3 rebounds. Right next to him, Will McNair averages 6.7 and 4.9. Jans used a deep rotation during the season, as 11 players averaged more than 10 minutes, and follows the 2-foul rule strictly, meaning a player will be sat down if they pick up two in the first half. While Allen took by far the most 3-pointers on the team, Rice was the most reliable regular 3-point shooter among the players expected to play, shooting 34.2%.

New Mexico State’s defensive shooting numbers were great across the board after adjustments, as it held opponents to a 45.5% effective field goal rate (20th in country), 30% on 3-pointers (24th) and 45.8% on 2-pointers (30th) as well as a block rate of 12.9 (31st). However, the Aggies almost never earned steals, as their percentage ranks 332nd in the country, and they force turnovers on just 16.9% of possessions (266th). The NMSU EFG % of 52.2 is 79th in the country and it shoots 54.2% inside the arc, good for 26th on KenPom, but shoots just 33% on 3-pointers and 69.3% on free throws. Their offensive rebounding percentage of 33.2% is 41st on KenPom. Finally, it turns the ball over on over 20% of possessions and Allen, Rice and McCants average at least two turnovers per game, with Allen at 2.8.

When UConn is on Offense

This is a very good matchup for Sanago, who badly needs to get going after his lackluster offensive play in the Big East Tournament. He has the footwork and strength to score effectively against the 6-10 McNair, his likely defender, and UConn should make a point of trying to get the big bis oy going early. Sanago has shown a consistent ability to bounce back after he has a tough game or two and as long as he makes intelligent decisions with the ball, I think he should have a very good game. I think that Martin is also set up well to have a strong offensive game. While he may have a tough time making 3-pointers on the Aggie D, Martin can clean up on the offensive glass and bully Rice and fellow guard Clayton Henry, both “6-4”, using his size and strength.

While R.J. Cole is significantly smaller than all of the NMSU starting guards (Allen is “6-6”), he has the shot-making skills and basketball IQ to find ways to score against the trio and possibly get them in foul trouble. If Martin struggles from beyond the arc, it would be valuable for Cole to make a couple of threes and just keep the defense honest while giving him more room to operate. It’s hard to know what you’ll get with Andre Jackson offensively from game to game, but his athleticism and size should allow him to get good scoring opportunities if he wants it, especially in transition (more on that just below). Cole, Jackson and Martin should all make a point of trying to attack Allen when they can, as he is not seen as a good defender and foul trouble in the first half could force him out of the game and put the Aggies in trouble. Jalen Gaffney could be a valuable offensive piece in this game when he replaces Cole because of his size and ability to attack the basket along with his tournament experience. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up a couple of points.

With the Aggies capable of shutting down the paint, UConn will have to find ways to get Polley good 3-point looks consistently to help open up the offense. These could come off of screens, in transition, kickouts and similar examples. Polley needs to make sure that he moves without the ball to get open and shouldn’t hesitate to look for ways to score in the midrange or at the rim as well using his size. Polley may be able to do a better job of getting open today versus a Big East Team which is more familiar with how to effectively defend him.  If Tyler Hawkins is available and capable of playing around 10-15 minutes, he can also be another 3-point shooting threat as well as a decoy. Finally, Whaley may have to step out of the paint and possibly even behind the line to get a few good looks against McCants.

I believe UConn’s ace in the hole for this game is the opportunity they could have to dominate New Mexico State in transition. It is facing a less athletic and lengthy team that is very susceptible to turnovers, and the Huskies are certainly capable of playing at a high tempo if they choose to do so. Players like Jackson, Cole and Martin are built for playing transition basketball and highly effective at it as long as the Huskies are disciplined. If it becomes a turnover-fest on the Aggies part, I think UConn could run them out of the gym.

When UConn is on Defense

On defense, everything begins and ends with stopping Allen. While he isn’t the most efficient scorer, his shot-making abilities and ability to get into the lane and draw fouls allows him to put up huge numbers and be one of the top mid-major players in the country. It seems like UConn’s optimal strategy will be to trwhoey and push Allen out past the 3-point line and have him take 3-pointers or difficult midrange shots. To do that, the Huskies and specifically Whaley and Sanago will need to communicate well and run the hard hedge to run Allen off of the 3-point line and force him into passes or low-quality shots. The main defenders on Allen will likely be Martin and Jackson, and they both have the size and athleticism to successfully defend Allen if they can be disciplined and not fall for pump-fakes or euro-steps. If Allen ends up taking a lot of 3-pointers, UConn still needs to focus on closing out on him effectively. If Allen is forced into the role of distributor, it could help lead to scoring opportunities, as he is prone to turnovers (2.8 per game). And if UConn can’t stop Allen effectively in the man-to-man, then Hurley has to swallow his pride and either double-team him or switch to new defenses to keep him in check. Make Allen work and think as much as possible on both offense and defense to tire him out, and everything else should fall into place.

Aside from Allen, Rice is the other player UConn will need to key in on, as he is the main distributor for the Aggies. Rice will most likely have some combination of Jackson, Martin and Cole on him, and whomever is guarding him will similarly have to pressure Rice when he has the ball in his hands without fouling and force him into low-percentage shots. I am confident Sanago and Whaley can successfully defend McCants and McNair effectively, and believe that Whaley can outplay McCants because he has a higher offensive ceiling and McCants is extremely prone to turnovers (22.8% turnover rate). While New Mexico State has demonstrated that they are skilled at avoiding having their shots blocked, the combination of Sanago and Whaley is almost definitely better than any other duo the Aggies have seen in conference play, and UConn should be able to block or at least alter a decent number of shots. The Huskies will need to defend Henry closely on the perimeter, as he shoots 37.5% from three.

The Huskies should be able to force plenty of turnovers against New Mexico, especially if they’re intimidated by the environment or come out slow. I’d like to see Hurley press ballhandlers a decent amount, especially at the end if its close. Jackson, Martin and Cole all can press players effectively and force turnovers and Cole is especially adept at nabbing steals from opponents. If UConn can force turnovers and pressure the ball without fouling, defend the rim well and keep Allen somewhat in check, then I think the team will be in fine shape at the end.

In Conclusion

New Mexico is the type of team that could have been a reliable upset pick against the right opponent, especially with a player who can take over the game in Allen. I think that UConn’s strengths match up well to New Mexico State’s, and its overall talent level is higher. When you throw that in with the Aggies turnover issues and mediocre 3-point and foul shooting, there is a stark contrast between the teams. Last but not least, I don’t think this years Huskies squad, especially the seniors, is going to hide from the moment. They are on a mission to prove this is a top program again, and that starts with making some noise in march. New Mexico State will keep it somewhat close with its defense and the play of Allen, but I am comfortable picking UConn to win by somewhere between 8-10 points.