Tag: Providence

Observations on Last Week’s Games: UConn Continues to Look Like an Elite Team

This time last month, UConn was reeling. Following their home loss to Xavier on January 25th, the team had lost six of eight games and was under .500 in the Big East at 5-6. The defense was playing terribly, and UConn was getting inconsistent production from multiple starters, particularly Andre Jackson, as well as much of its bench. The worst part of this was that the Huskies were playing tentatively, and no one seemed to be having any fun. Never mind reaching the heights of the team’s 14-0 start: UConn needed to turn things around to still get a strong seed in the NCAA Tournament as well as avoid having to play in the first round of the Big East tourney.

Flash forward to today, and the Huskies are the hottest team in the Big East and again seen as one of the most likely squads to go deep into March and reach the Final Four. UConn defeated ranked Providence and St. John’s with ease on Wednesday and Saturday, with the first 18-point triumph on Senior Night one of the program’s signature wins of the season. The Huskies have one six of seven and are now 22-7 and 11-7 in the Big East (good for fifth in the standings), earning them a No. 14 ranking in the AP Poll yesterday. After two mediocre offensive games, they were on fire against the Friars and Red Storm, showing their versatility and depth. On defense, UConn did a much better job of limiting offensive penetration and defending at the rim, especially against Providence, and keeping players off the offensive glass. From better communication and focus as a team to improved coaching to individual players turning things around, everything is looking up for the Huskies going into the last two regular season games against DePaul and at Villanova tomorrow and Saturday.

Below, I discuss my famous observations about the Providence and St. John’s wins and the big-time positives and one negative fans can take from the games. UConn is frequently clicking on all cylinders right now. Let’s hope they don’t lose focus in this last week and hurt their momentum going into the Big East tourney.

Adama Sanogo Reminds Opponents and Fans That he is One of the Best Players in the Nation

As Jordan Hawkins has earned more and more accolades for his shooting and overall improvement in Big East Play, Sanogo has faded to the background a little bit, particularly since he is not a serious NBA prospect like Hawkins is. Sanogo’s reliability is sometimes not appreciated by the Husky fanbase, and the junior hasn’t been helped when asked to carry the load so frequently by the team, as was happening when the offense was being run through Sanogo during UConn’s January swoon. In February however, Dan Hurley made the smart decision to have the big man play significant minutes at the top of the key, allowing Sanogo to focus on setting screens and starting scoring opportunities facing towards the basket. Sanogo’s strength and footwork allows him to be very effective as a scorer from this spot, and it allows him to take better advantage of his surprisingly strong 3-point shot. It also makes it much easier for Sanogo to pass the ball. And of course, Sanogo has been just as strong as ever in the low post since Hurley’s changes, especially now that he is not being double-teamed so much. Sanogo showed off his increased offensive efficiency as well as an improved all-around game against Providence and St. John’s.

Sanogo averaged 17 points against the Friars and Red Storm on 75% shooting and went 10-12 at the free throw line. He also averaged 7 rebounds, grabbing 9 on Saturday. Sanogo did an excellent job of beating his man both down low and off the dribble from the top of the key, and displayed great touch and footwork. Against St. John’s, he did an outstanding job of attacking defenders head on and forcing contact, going 8-10 at the charity stripe. Sanogo also demonstrated his improved passing by dishing out a combined three assists in the wins. On the boards, Sanogo did a strong job of boxing out and reacting quickly to rebound opportunities.

Sanogo’s defense has been much improved in recent games, and that continued to be the case against Providence and St. John’s. He did a good job of staying in front of his man as well as providing help defense when necessary. Sanogo’s rim protection, which has dropped off this year, was much improved, and he recorded a season-high 3 bocks against the Friars. Sanogo did a strong job of avoiding foul trouble in the wins, although he certainly got help from Donovan Clinigan when he was on the bench.

Even if Hawkins is now UConn’s number one, Sanogo is 1B. His ability to score and rebound consistently is remarkable, and when Sanogo is locked in defensively as well, he becomes a great two-way player. Now that Dan Hurley has seemingly figured out how to allow Sanogo succeed without dominating the ball, he has become an even tougher matchup for opponents. Sanogo is UConn’s best big man of the last decade, and he is in position to add postseason success to his legacy if he continues to perform at this high of a level.

The Bench Has Come Alive Again

For most of Big East play, UConn has gotten little offensively from its best players even since it got out again, minus Clinigan at some points. Against Providence and especially St. John’s however, the bench awoke from its slumber. The Huskies bench players supplied 19 points against the Friars and 32 against the Red Storm, while also generally playing good defense.

The duo of Naheim Alleyne and Clinigan were a great bench duo in the last two games. Alleyne scored a combined 17 points and drained all three 3-pointers he took against Providence. He especially stepped up offensively in the first half to give the team momentum. Alleyne has been UConn’s most reliable defender off the bench, and again limited player’s ability to penetrate against the Friars and Red Storm. He had steals in both games and a block against St. John’s.

Clinigan, which had seemed to hit a freshman wall in previous weeks, appeared to be returning to his effectiveness he showed earlier in the season in the last two games. The freshman center scored a combined 16 points against Providence and St. John’s in 25 minutes, while shooting 6-12 from the field and 4-6 at the line. He also kept his turnovers under control, committing just one in each win. Clinigan also grabbed 9 rebounds, 7 offensive. Clinigan did a better job of finishing around the rim after struggling to do so for a few games and continued to do an outstanding job of earning putbacks. Clinigan also again showed how gifted he is at reading where shots will come off the rim and outmuscling  offensive defenders for offensive rebounds. It was heartening to see Clinigan finally performing under pressure on foul shots after struggling so much on them recently. After not being as much of a force defensively for much of February, Clinigan was a monster against a small Red Storm squad, blocking 5 shots and also earning a steal. With this increased effectiveness, Clinigan should earn more minutes against DePaul and Villanova squads that he matches up well against.

While seeing Alleyne and Clinigan have two strong games was satisfying, it was particularly fun to see Joey Calcaterra have a great game against St. John’s. The super senior, whose 3-point shot had abandoned him in conference play, drained three of four treys on Saturday and made four free throws in just 17 minutes, finishing with 15 points. It was the first time Calcaterra had more than two 3-pointers in conference play, and tied his season high in points. His teammates did an excellent job of finding Calcaterra against the Red Storm, and he also did an excellent job of moving without the ball. With no surprise, the UConn fans at Madison Square Garden went crazy when Joey California caught fire. While Calcaterra must have more than one good game to prove that he is back on track, the guard can certainly give the Huskies a huge weapon off the bench in tournament play if he has a strong touch in a game.

When UConn is at its best, the aforementioned players as well as Hassan Diarra are capable of stepping up on both ends when needed, especially sense the team has one starter in Andre Jackson whom can be very  inconsistent offensively. The performance of the bench against Providence and St. John’s was very promising and fun to watch. However, the bench players must prove that they can be consistent in more games for the Huskies to reach their potential.

Andre Jackson is Changing the Game on Both Ends

Throughout January and early February, no one had a bigger target on their head than Jackson, sometimes to an excessive extent from fans. The junior was playing undisciplined on both ends, and appeared to have no confidence at times offensively. However, he has been much better defensively in February, and his offense has improved as well now that Hurley and Jackson have placed him in the dunker’s spot to get easier scoring opportunities and not be tempted to regularly shoot from the outside, where Jackson has struggled heavily this season. Against Providence and St. John’s, Jackson was locking down multiple players while making plays for both teammates and himself around the rim.

While Jackson was effective offensively against Providence, especially in setting up teammates (he scored 4 points on 3 attempts and dished out 4 assists to just one turnover), it was against St. John’s where he especially impressed. Jackson scored 15 points on 5-6 shooting, going 4-5 at the line, and added 3 assists. It was the second time in three games Jackson dropped a season-high 15. The forward completed multiple athletic shots around the rim, including a dunk and putback, and drained an open 3-pointer. He did a strong job of getting the ball to teammates for open shots., and as always had multiple moments where he came out of nowhere to grab loose balls on both ends.

Jackson’s defense was strong in both games, particularly in the first when he had to cover Friars star Devin Carter. Jackson limited Carter to just 7 points on 3-10 shooting and was consistently in his face while not fouling. Against the Red Storm, Jackson was again aggressive defensively and had 2 blocks while playing 38 minutes.

After Jackson’s underwhelming play for much of the Big East schedule, fans had a reason to feel that the small forward was having an underwhelming year and would never reach his full potential. In the last two weeks however, the adjustments Hurley made to simplify things for Jackson offensively, and his overall re-commitment on the defensive end, have allowed Jackson to reach his full potential on both ends. Jackson is a playmaker and agent of chaos on both ends, and UConn is more dangerous going into March as result.  

Rebounding Continues to be Elite

After a drop-off in UConn’s rebounding during its struggles, the team has improved on the glass on both ends the last few weeks, and that was on display against Providence and St. John’s. Their offensive rebounding has been particularly strong, and the Huskies are now the number one team in both the country and Big East at offensive rebounding percentage (39.1% and 40.3%). After struggling on the boards in the first matchup with the Friars, UConn outrebounded them 40-20 overall and 15-8 on the offensive end in last Wednesday’s 87-69 win. While the Huskies had no players in double-digits, five grabbed at least 5 rebounds, led by Alex Karaban’s 8 (he also scored 16). In contrast, no Friar has more than 5 and Bryce Hopkins, one of the best rebounders in the conference, did not record one against UConn’s front line. While the battle on the boards between the Huskies and St. John’s was more even, they still outrebounded the Red Storm 38-32 and won on the offensive glass. UConn had four players with five or more rebounds, led by Sanogo with 9 and Tristen Newton with 7. While Joel Soriano was great on the boards for St. John’s grabbing 11, no other player had a big rebounding game. As in other recent games, the Huskies did an excellent job boxing out and reading balls off the backboard and got to loose balls very quickly.

UConn’s ability to rebound will be a huge strength in tournament play, and especially in the NCAA Tournament when games will likely be less physical. It’s been proven over time that teams which rebound well can frequently go deep into March Madness, and I can see UConn winning a tournament game because of its rebounding and scoring second-chance points. Now let’s make it a reality.

The Huskies Still Need to Improve Their Ball-Handling and Focus for 40 Minutes

The to issues identified in the title have been a huge problem throughout conference play and cost the team wins. While UConn did a better job with passing and ball-handling against Providence and St. John’s, it still committed a combined 27 turnovers and had more turnovers than their opponent in both. Players still made unnecessarily risky passes that were out of bounds or stolen, or either were stripped or lost the ball out of bounds. Newton, Hawkins, and Jackson were the primary culprits. The Huskies are continuing to make unforced errors that reflect a lack of basketball IQ. While UConn was in control throughout against both Providence and St. John’s, they made a handful of silly fouls that allowed both teams to keep their offense afloat in both games. The team especially grew lackadaisical on defense in the final few minutes against the Red Storm, making the score look much closer than it actually was. The Huskies need to tighten up on defense against DePaul and especially at Villanova this week, which will beat UConn if it isn’t giving 100 percent effort.

Observations on Providence Loss: UConn’s Offense is MIA at Home in Flat Performance

It’s hard to call a loss a worst-case scenario when the team you are rooting for only loses by four points.  UConn’s performance against Providence was pretty ugly at some points however, and exposed the biggest weaknesses the Huskies currently have without Adama Sanogo, even after the return of Tyrese Martin. They had a terrible stretch at the end of the first half and beginning of the second to fall behind by 15 points, and their admirable comeback effort was eventually foiled by poor execution on both ends. Poor shot selection, terrible perimeter shooting, overreliance on one player, weird substitution patterns, costly defensive mistakes…. you mention it, Saturday’s57-53 defeat at the XL Center had it.  It was a crappy way to start the program’s first home schedule with fans in two years and their first ever in the new Big East.

To ensure that this article is not too long, I am going to mainly just briefly focus on the most important stretches of the game before I get to the meet of the article, my observations on the game. After UConn took a 9-5 lead into the first TV timeout, the game entered a very ugly stretch, as it did not score a field goal for more than nine minutes after a Martin layup at the 15:20 mark. As already discussed, the Huskies and Tyler Polley and R.J. Cole in particular were struggling to make perimeter shots despite many of their opportunities being good looks, while blowing opportunities at the rim. UConn’s defense on the Friars was good enough that it managed to have a 21-20- lead with 3:09 remaining in the half. In its final stretch however, the Huskies fell apart on both ends and ultimately trailed 31-21 at the half. A.J. Reeves and Ed Croswell each made multiple 3-pointers and dunks, while UConn failed to score off multiple offensive rebounds.

After a poor start to the second half, a Martin three 4:35 in got UConn back within 10 at 39-29. The Friars shook off the trey and continued to execute well on offense, dominating the Huskies in the paint to go up 48-32 with 10:41 remaining. During this stretch, Croswell and Watson pushed around defenders and set up scoring opportunities through strong screens. UConn was doing a poor job of pressuring ball-handlers, and the lack of Sanogo or teammates to help out Whaley (calling out Akok Akok) made it very difficult for him to keep Watson and Croswell consistently in check. Meanwhile, the Huskies were forcing shots both outside and in the paint and looked to lack confidence on offense. They were also struggling with making adjustments to Providence constantly switching its defense. To the Huskies credit, they slowly clawed back after falling behind by 16. They executed a series of beautiful backdoor passes and shots at the rim that led to either baskets or fouls. UConn also finally begin hitting a few threes, with Andre Jackson of all people hitting two treys. The team tightened up its defense and forced the suddenly cold Friars into tough shots, while also benefiting from Providence’s poor free throw shooting. Polley’s 3-pointer (his only one of the day) made it 55-53 with 1:58 remaining and sent the crowd into a frenzy.

I will go more into UConn’s ugly performance on offense in the final two minutes, but let’s just say that it brought back memories of previous losses to West Virginia and Michigan State. The Huskies missed four 3-pointers in this stretch as well as a scoring opportunity off of an offensive rebound, and played poor defense on the Friars one basket during this stretch. It was a heartbreaking loss for the fans to stomach, and showed just how far UConn is right now to living up to its potential. UConn fell to 9-3 overall with the loss, with all these losses occurring with the team having at least one major player out and by a combined 11 points.

Below, let’s look at a series of observations about the Huskies third loss of the season and its first in conference. Why the tone of this story has been pretty negative so far, I promise all my observations are not.

The Offense is Ugly Right Now, especially on the Perimeter

Any loyal fans who read that headline will probably immediately reply, “no shit, Sherlock”. UConn shot 32.1% overall and 27.6% (8-29) from three, while also going just 7-13 at the line for good measure. In arguably six of the last seven games (notwithstanding the 88-59 win against Grambling State), the Huskies have arguably underperformed offensively and from deep, admittingly against quality teams. In the last three games against West Virginia, St. Bonaventure and Providence, UConn has shot 19-77, adding up to 24.7%. That’s an epic slump, and it’s almost impossible to believe things won’t average out to some extent.

Against the Friars, UConn’s struggles on the perimeter had large similarities to those in the previous two games. Providence deserves a lot of credit for their strong defense on the opposing shooters. Ultimately however, the Huskies either rushed or forced a lot of shots, including at the end of the game and consistently missed open shots, wasting good ball movement. Everybody joined in on the struggles, including the teams so called best shooters (Polley and Tyler Hawkins), Cole and a rusty Martin. As the crowd saw, UConn seemingly continues to hoist threes that are forced instead of performing the ball movement necessary to set up the best perimeter opportunities, and then hesitates when having quality open shots from the outside.

I know Dan Hurley is committed to having the Huskies shoot a lot of threes every game, and it made since somewhat to attack the paint less against Providence due to the Friars imposing front line. However, maybe it is time to be so heavily reliant on treys and look to score near the rim more, especially with Sanogo returning against Marquette. Let’s hope the tide starts to change by the end of the month with everyone healthy.

Poor Production from Most Experienced Members of the Lineup

Starting with Tyler Polley, UConn’s starters and main bench players almost all struggled against the Friars for a large percentage of the game. Polley has been catching a ton of flack lately and it is deserved, even if it may go over the top at times. Polley went just 1-7 against Providence, missing his first six attempts. Since the Auburn game, the senior forward seems completely lost, especially against the toughest competition. Part of the issue against Providence may have been that Polley seemed to take almost all his shots off screens and without being set, arguably making them tougher to make. If Polley again takes multiple threes against Marquette as part of the game plan, Hurley and UConn needs to do its best to make sure they are set shots. With Polley not contributing on the boards or supplying efficient defense despite his size, there is no reason he deserves the amount of playing time he gets unless he is on a hot streak and making attempts. Otherwise, give more time to Akok and Samson Johnson in place of Polley to help solidify the defense and provide additional perimeter threats.

It’s easy to gang up on Polley, but none of the most experienced team members have looked great in the last two weeks (besides Martin, obviously). With Martin and Sanogo out and the struggles of Jalen Gaffney, Cole has been asked to do way too much on both ends of the court while getting little rest. Cole has found it more difficult to score at the rim without the spacing Sanogo and Martin provide, and is going through one of his cold streaks shooting outside of the paint, which Cole showed he was susceptible to last season as well. While Cole has averaged just under 16 points per game in the last four contests, it has taken him 65 shots to do so. Against Providence, Cole shot 5-19 overall and 2-10 inside the arc, and many of these shots were forced or came late in the shot clock. When Cole is asked to pick up a huge load of the scoring slack he cannot focus as well on point guard responsibilities, and Gaffney hasn’t shown him consistent support.

 Speaking of Gaffney, he may be the player who I have been most disappointed with this season. The junior guard went scoreless in 24 minutes against the Friars while committing three turnovers. In the team’s six games against major competition, Gaffney has scored just 32 points, made no threes, and committed 13 turnovers against 14 assists, but played at least 20 minutes in most of these games. Across the board, a majority of Gaffney’s offensive numbers are worse than last season. While Gaffney’s defensive ratings are mixed, his weaknesses are visible against tough competition, such as his difficulty staying in front of quick guards and tendency to sell out for steals, which can lead to huge baskets by the player he’s supposed to be guarding. For example, Gaffney was out of position and late on Alijami’s Durham’s layup in the final minute against Providence, a basket that more or less sealed the game. Everything about Gaffney’s game-his reluctancy to attack the basket despite his athleticism and free throw shooting, commit inexplicable turnovers and waste way too much time bringing the ball up the court when playing point-is designed to frustrate me to death. At this point, Gaffney should start to lose minutes to Hawkins and Rashoul Diggins should be given the opportunity to play 5-10 minutes per game so Hurley can see his ball-handling and passing abilities. Maybe making such a move will light a fire under Gaffney and motivate him to reach his potential.  

While I don’t have much negative to say about how Isiah Whaley has played on either end recently, even he played inconsistent defense against Providence. The return of Sanogo should take some pressure off Whaley and give him more freedom to focus on playing defense and controlling the boards.

Please Come Save us, Adama Sanogo

UConn is a solid team without Sanogo, but they need him back and playing to full or almost full strength as soon as possible to get off to a strong start in the Big East. Sanogo is expected to play limited minutes tonight against Marquette, and the Huskies luckily will have a week off afterwards until playing at Xavier. The sophomore can immediately give UConn the potent scorer they need inside, improved rebounding and more reliable post defense and blocking, while allowing Whaley and Akok to be used more flexibly. With Sanogo, I am certain UConn would have won against Providence. Even if Sanogo can be a bit of a black hole on offense, he will make it better and more consistent. With a healthy Sanogo, the Huskies are one of the top teams in the conference and a Top 25 team.

Bring on Akok Akok and the kids

Despite getting two key blocks and rebounding well early against Providence, Akok was used less as the game went on and ultimately attempted just one shot in 16 minutes (a 3-pointer that he missed). After the loss, Hurley said that Akok had looked tentative on offense and got lost a few times on offense and I certainly don’t dispute those statements, especially in regards to the offensive end. As inconsistent as Akok is as he returns from injury and gets more up to game speed however, he is already showing offensive rebounding and shot blocking abilities that the Huskies are desperately in need of. Factor in his 3-point shooting success (8-14) this year and ability to stretch the floor, which no other big on UConn really has, how well he had just played against St. Bonaventure and the enthusiasm Akok brings to the team, and I think Hurley needs to be willing to give Akok more leeway if his body is up to it. Akok’s speed and size makes him a good fit against Marquette, so hopefully he will get more consistent minutes tonight.

Regarding Samson Johnson and Rashoul Diggins, what more can I say? Johnson has apparently been playing decent in practice and has occasionally shown solid scoring skills and rebounding in the limited minutes he has played. It would have made sense to give Johnson more of a chance to play with Sanogo out, and yet he was DNA against Providence and only played two minutes against St. Bonaventure. Hurley indicated Johnson may play some against Marquette, and there is no reason he shouldn’t get at least 5-10 minutes in the next few games as Sanogo gets back to full strength. I imagine Diggins must look poor (at least on defense) in practice if Hurley is not giving him any playing time against non-cupcakes, but with Gaffney struggling so much and Cole overwhelmed, it makes a world of sense to at least give Diggins five minutes or so to display his ball handling and passing abilities against Marquette. Finally, Hawkins needs to get more consistent minutes in the next few games with Polley in a shooting funk. IF Hawkins playing patterns made more sense, I would hope he would be more confident and able to get into a groove at times.

Kudos to Jackson and Martin on Their Play

For the second straight game, Jackson was probably UConn’s best player. He scored eight points and snatched down 14 rebounds (12 defensive) and knocked down two 3-pointers. Yes, Jackson again missed a few easy shots at the rim (stop trying to tip in the ball with one hand already). But he continues to look like the most energetic player out there and a great facilitator while slowly becoming more disciplined. Meanwhile, Martin got more up to speed as the game went on and finished with 15 points and five rebounds. I am confident he will be close to the same player he was early in the season within two weeks or so.   

UConn Looks to Make Big Splash in Front of Home Crows in Conference Opener

In a very real way, UConn’s Big East opener against Providence late this afternoon at the XL Center is the most impactful game the Huskies have played in a few seasons. Obviously, there is the factor of the program just playing a home game with fans for the first time since early March in 2020, but then you those fans being able to be part of a Big East game for the first time in a decade, and it takes on a whole other dimension. With the opponent a long-time rival that is again having a solid season, the environment at the XL should be raucous. Best of all, Tyrese Martin is guaranteed to return for the Huskies and there is a chance Adama Sanogo will make his return for a few minutes. It will almost definitely be a highly competitive game, and a win would be important for the program, especially considering the Friars resume. UConn is favored by KenPom to win 73-65 and is a -7 betting favorite.

Below is a brief look at how Providence is playing this season and how they will match up with the Huskies.

Performance So Far:

Providence has had an excellent showing in its non-conference slate, as its 10-1 record is tied with Xavier for the best in the Big East. It has three wins against top-40 teams in the KenPom rankings (Wisconsin on the road, Northwestern at a neutral site and No. 18 Texas Tech), and has also beaten a strong Rhode Island squad. All of the Friars wins against power conference teams came in regulation by five points or fewer, as they have clearly demonstrated the ability to close games, something UConn is still struggling with. Providence’s lone loss was a 58-50 neutral defeat to Virginia, which is currently ranked 58th by KenPom. Overall, it’s non-conference schedule was ranked 143rd by the site, more than 150 slots higher than UConn. While Providence’s rankings on various stats-based websites are not quite as high as you’d expect based on performance (the team is ranked 57th on KenPom for instance), it received a lot of votes in the AP poll last week and will surely be ranked if it defeats UConn.

Strengths and Weaknesses

While the highly experienced Friars (five graduate students) have not been dominant in any areas, they have been solid on both sides of the ball in a number of categories. On offense, they are ranked 63rd in the country and shoot well (effective field goal percentage of 51.4, ranking 115th in the country and a two-point percentage that ranks 74th). Providence also rebounds well on the offensive end and are above average at avoiding turnovers. Luckily for UConn, which has been inconsistent with defending the 3-point line, Providence shoots just 32.2% on threes, 215th in the country. While it does not shoot free throws particularly well, the Friars get to the free throw line a lot and heavily rely on it, scoring just under 23% of their points from the stripe. Providence does an excellent job of sharing and distributing the ball, as their assist rate of 61.3 on the Bartovik stat website is 22nd in the country. Despite their solid offense, the Friars average just under 71 points per game due to the very slow tempo they play at. Their adjusted tempo and average possession length rank 206th and 266th in the country, with this style partially due to the team’s reliance on big man Nate Watson, who is discussed just more below.

Providence’s offence revolves around 6-10, 260-pound senior center Nate Watson, one of the best players in the Big East. The senior center is an absolute beast inside, scoring 15.3 points per game on 64.3% shooting, and his same effective field goal percentage ranks 61st in the country. Watson is a very disciplined offensive player and has committed just 13 turnovers while avoiding huge foul trouble. While Watson’s rebounding numbers are not huge for a player of his size, he still pulls down 5.5 boards per game. Watson’s biggest weakness is his free throw shooting, as he has shot just 54.5% at the line. Watson has a great senior running mate in the backcourt in Noah Horchler, who brings a reliable inside-out game and is the Friars best rebounder. Horchler is averaging 10.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Horchler, an excellent shooter, has a true shooting percentage of over 60 and is shooting 40.5% from three. He has four double-doubles this season and made multiple threes in five games.

Providence also has two other double-digit scorers in point guard Al Durham (13.5) and small forward AJ Reeves (10.7). Durham, who had scored in double-digits in every game prior to the last two contests, is a somewhat flawed offensive player. His true shooting percentage is just over 40% and Durham has made just 10 threes in 44 attempts (22.7%), a huge drop from last season’s 38%. While Durham averages just under four assists per game, he has also committed three turnovers per game. However, Durham has shot over 80% at the charity stripe. Reeves is a solid overall shooter and has shot 36.4% behind the arc. He has been the team’s hottest player in the last week, scoring a combined 41 points against Vermont and Central Connecticut. Besides the core four for Providence, senior forward Justin Miniya has been a valuable bench piece, averaging 5.6 points and 5.1 rebounds.         

 The Friars also have a solid defense, ranking 71st in adjusted efficiency on that end according to KenPom. Opponents have averaged 60.5 points and been held under 60 for three consecutive games. With a strong front line anchored by Watson (averaging a block per game), they limit teams to an effective field goal percentage of 45.4 inside the arc, four percentage points under average and ranking 54th in the country. They also defend the three reasonably well. While Providence forces turnovers at a low rate, its block percentage of 11.9% is 76th in the country. UConn will have to return to rebounding at a high level on the offensive end, which could be a challenge against a Friars team that is capable of controlling the boards. The Friars are skilled at defending without fouling, as opponents reach the line more than two percentage points below average (15.3). Providence forces opponents to play at its slow tempo and their average possession length ranks 294th in the nation.

Assessing how UConn Matches Up

Offense

While it’s hard to know his stamina level and how effective Martin can be offensively in his first game back from injury, he has the ability to tilt the advantage towards UConn on the offensive (and defensive end). Martin adds another player who should be able to drive to the hoop and create matchup problems against Providence’s guards and front line. Martin is a solid passer and 3-point shooter, a weapon that UConn desperately needs. His presence will help create more driving lines for the UConn guards, particularly R.J. Cole.

Whether or not Sanogo is able to give any minutes, the Huskies will have their hands full scoring against Watson, who averages a block a game. Isiah Whaley, Martin and Akok Akok will need to find a way to get some points matching up with him, whether that comes in the half-court or off the glass, and UConn’s guards must find a way to neutralize Watson as well. The obvious thing to do would be to get him in foul trouble, but the Huskies can also neutralize the Providence bigs by running efficient ball screens and pick-and-rolls and getting out on fastbreaks. It would also be huge if Whaley and especially Akok could knock down a few perimeter shots and open up space for the rest of the offense. If Sanogo does play, I am just looking for him to give 5-10 reliable minutes where he can hopefully use his size to score over Watson and put him in danger of getting into foul trouble.

In the end, I think UConn’s biggest offensive keys to winning will be to press the tempo, shoot well from the perimeter and get a solid number of offensive rebounds. With Bynum possibly out and Providence not having a ton of depth as a team in general, I believe Martin can help the Huskies wear the Friars out by running off of offensive rebounds and turnovers, with Cole and Andre Jackson leading the way in this regard. UConn has shown over the last two games that it can consistently get open shots against good teams, I am confident they can again do so and that Cole, Jordan Hawkins and Tyler Polley can knock down threes and other perimeter shots with the spacing Martin and possibly Sanogo provide. I am hopeful that Hawkins can build on his performance from three in the last game, while not getting down if he struggles. Finally, the return of Martin will hopefully boost the Huskies offensive rebounding performance, which has been disappointing the last couple of games. It is critical that Whaley and Akok block out and anticipate well and make quality opportunities at the rim. Finally, as always, UConn must take care of the ball and maintain composure if the game is close late.  

On defense, UConn’s success will start with slowing Watson down to at least some extent. As great of a defender as Whaley is, it will be a big challenge for him bodying up against a player the size of Watson while avoiding foul trouble. Ditto Akok, whose body type is not well-suited to covering a player of Watson’s size and length. If Sanogo plays, he can hopefully at least keep Watson in check for a short time, even if it leads to some fouls. Samson Johnson, who has the same height if not girth of Watson, could be huge for UConn in giving extra frontcourt minutes if Sanogo does not play. The Huskies do benefit from the fact that Watson is a very poor free throw shooter even if he forces them into foul trouble. In the end however, the Huskies will need to at least consistently alter the shots of Watson and the Friars other bigs even if they do not get blocks and keep them off the offensive boards, which requires improved boxing out by UConn and a good showing by Martin.

Besides slowing down Watson and to a lesser extent Horchler, UConn’s biggest key to defensive success will be shutting down Reeves and especially Durham. As discussed before, Durham is especially susceptible to turnovers, and good ball pressure will put the pair in danger of committing turnovers and make it more difficult to get the ball to Watson. It will also limit their ability to kick out passes to an open Horchler on the perimeter. While I have generally been happy with Cole’s defense, Jalen Gaffney, Jackson and Hawkins need to keep the Providence guards from blowing past them or getting easy looks at the rim. If Jackson can stay disciplined, his length and athleticism could make ball-handling a nightmare for the Friars guards.

Final Verdict

This game is going to almost definitely be ugly. Providence will do its best to slow the game down, and we know that UConn can be bogged down by opponents and go into stretches where they cannot hit a shot to save their lives. Add that there will be a lot of fouls, and Dan Hurley is going to have to get creative with his lineups and adjustments, especially if Sanogo is not available. Ultimately however, I believe that the return of Martin and the impact he can have in so many different phases of the game and as a leader, coupled with the home court advantage, will allow the Huskies to pull this game out Sanogo or no Sanogo (if he plays, I’m almost certain they win). As long as UConn can limit the Providence guards, they should win by roughly 8-10 points. Can’t wait for tonight!

Game observations on Providence loss: UConn looks disjointed, offense goes cold, and Sanogo continues hot streak

UConn entered Wednesday’s game at rival Providence desperately needing a win to keep their NCAA tournament hopes on track after a tough loss to Seton Hall. Their need to win only increased more when it was announced just before the game that James Bouknight would not play. Providence was similarily in a must-win mode after having lost four of five to fall to 9-10 and 5-8 in the Big East. The game would come down to who showed more toughness and efficiency.

UConn did not rise up to the challenge. Instead, they seemed to lack energy for all 40 minutes and performed poorly on both ends, especially in the second half. Meanwhile, Providence executed well and controlled the pace, getting contributions from throughout the roster. This resulted in a 70-59 loss, the Huskies (8-5,5-5 in Big East) fourth in five games.

While the absence of Bouknight and uncertainty over his return is obviously taking a toll, it cannot be used as an excuse, especially when the Friars were also missing top players due to injury issues. It’s time for the UConn players as well as Dan Hurley to not make excuses and play better as a team. As of Friday afternoon, they are currently sixth in the Big East and off the bubble for the tournament.

After leading by one at halftime, UConn and Providence briefly traded baskets to open the second half before the Friars star point guard David Duke made a layup to give them a 40-38 2:45 in. This kicked off a 17-6 Providence run that put it up 55-44 with 9:49 remaining. During this, the Friars pushed the tempo and got multiple easy layups, with the Husky defenders either beaten off the drible or out of position. Providence also regularly got fouled going to the rim, as UConn kept being called for touch fouls. Nate Wilson and Noah Horchler scored six and five points, respectively during the run. Meanwhile, the UConn point guards struggled to bring the ball up against the Providence press and generally wasted a lot of time just throwing the ball from side to side, leaving players having to rush shots in the final seconds of the clock. The Huskies went cold even on open shots, missing five three-pointers.

After falling behind by 11, UConn finally got ont rack for a short time. It went on an 11-3 run, which was ignited by tighter defense by UConn (it had both three steals and blocks during this stretch), quicker and easier shots, and offensive rebounding, as well as missed free throws by the Friars. Whaley and Sanogo each had dunks during the run. However, Polley again missed a 3-pointer when he had an opportunity to tie the game at 58 with 3:15 remaining, and Providence closed it out from there, hitting eight free throws in the final three minutes to win by 11.

Sanogo had one of his best all-around games despite foul trouble, scoring nine points and grabbing eight rebounds while making five blocks. Cole led the Huskies with 14 points on 5-12 shooting and earned six assists, but had five turnovers. He again slowed down in the second half, scoring just five points. Martin had 13 points and nine rebounds. Whaley again struggled, scoring just four points in 29 minutes before fouling out, and Jalen Gaffney had a disappointing game after earning the start at point guard, recording four points and an assist in just 16 minutes due to foul trouble. Tyler Polley had his worst shooting game of the year, going 2-12 overall and 1-8 on 3-pointers despite a number of open looks. Wilson and Duke led the way for Providence, as the former had 17 points on 6-8 shooting and six rebounds, and the latter 17 points, six assists and three steals. Horchler had nine points and 10 rebounds, and A.J. Reeves had 10 points and six assists.

As a team, UConn shot just 36.5% in the second half and 40% for the game. Polley was not the only player who struggled from behind the arc, as the team went 4-20. The Huskies were beat in nearly every statistical category. Providence controlled the boards, grabbing 39 to UConn’s 34, and the Friars lohad 14 assists to UConn’s nine. Providence also had a big advantage at the foul line, making 18 free throws to UConn’s five. The lone bright spot was in blocks, as the Huskies had eight.

Any way you look at it, this was a very disappointing game and probably the most frustrating loss UConn and its fans had had in some time. The team seemingly lacks confidence right now and isn’t playing well in any facet of the game, and Hurley doesn’t seem to necessarily have answers. The whole James Bouknight saga and the question of if and when he will return had seemingly cast a cloud over the program. I don’t know what the answers to these problems are, but suffice to say Saturday’s matchup with Xavier is a must-win game.

Here are my observations on the loss to Providence and UConn’s play:

The Huskies offense never gets going

This applies to every element of the game, but especially on the offensive end. Providence head coach Ed Cooley was very smart to play the press knowing that UConn generally doesn’t run and play uptempo, and the offense played right into Providence’s hands. The Huskies rarely tried to run and quickly break the press, typically taking nearly 10 seconds to get the ball within 20 feet of the basket. After that, it seemed like it generally took at least 10 seconds for a shot to be taken, and many of this were covered or came lot in the shot clock. Even with UConn struggling from the outside, the players did not try and feed the post or drive and either shoot it or get to the foul line nearly enough. Both when the team went cold in the middle of the second half or tried to come back late, the Huskies did not try to play more quickly or run unique offensive sets to generate points and momentum.

After the game, Hurley clearly expressed his frustration with the pace of play and the offense not being more agressive. That’s all well and good to hear, but what changes are he and the players going to make to get the offense playing more efficiently. I understand Hurley’s desire to try and play more slowly without Bouknight so that it keeps scores lower and makes it more likely UConn can win games, but that is currently not working, and the defense isn’t playing well enough to hold opponents in the 50s or low 60s anyway. What’s the arm in running different offensive sets that catch opponents off guard, or playing more uptempo and try to generate easier baskets and opponent turnovers. The Huskies need to worry less about Bouknight coming into save the offense and instead get the offense to work even without him.

UConn lacks energy and focus

While the offense was certaintly the biggest issue against Providence, the defense didn’t execute well either. Players were regularly unable to close out on shooters in time, especially on 3-point shots. While the big men protected the rim well and got some key blocks, the guards were beaten off the dribble at key times, especially in the second half. It seemed like the defenders did a poor job communicating with one another, especially in plays such as the pick and roll. While some guys already struggling on defense (like Polley) continued to have tough days, others like Martin did not perform up to their standard. UConn’s defense has been on a slide for a while now, as it has allowed at least 70 points to four of their last five opponents, the exception being the Butler win on Jan. 26th. In the adjusted efficiency ratings on kenpom.com, the Huskies are now 45th in the country at 94.3 points, which is more than 20 points higher than two weeks ago.

The lack of energy is also being reflected in UConn’s rebounding numbers. It has not won the rebounding battle in the last three losses, and had fewer offensive rebounds against both Seton Hall and Providence, despite that being the Huskies biggest strength. While they still have excellent offensive rebounding numbers (third in Big East play with 11.9 per game and sixth in the country in KenPom in averaging offensive rebounds on 15.3% of misses), UConn is 10th in Big East play in defensive rebounding with 23.3 per game, and its average of 35.2 per game is now sixth out of 11 teams. Against the Friars, the Huskies lost the rebounding batte 28-23, and its 10 offensive rebounds were two fewer than Providence’s. They were again beaten to long rebounds and loose balls and allowed costly second chances, while being one-and-done when shooting. Whether that’s a matter of UConn players not giving enough effort or more likely just misjudging rebound opportunities and being outworked, the Huskies need to reestablish their rebounding as a huge strength to be successful.

Finally, the UConn players and Hurley aren’t demonstrating enthusiasm and excitement when playing. Watching the bench against Providence, you did not see the players cheering on one another and celebrating big plays, and Hurley definitely looked displeased a lot. Hopefully against Xavier, the team will make a conscious choice to come out with as much energy as possible and maintain an air of positivity, one that can help lead to a win.

Sanogo and Andre Jackson are again huge bright spots

While fans were definitely frustrated with the play of UConn’s older players, Sanogo and Jackson each had very strong afternoons. Sanogo did an excellent job on the boards and made some tough shots, again demonstrating strong footwork. He also continues to improve on defense by altering and blocking shots more effectively and bodying up on defenders, although he still needs to improve on keeping his hands up and avoiding costly touch fouls. The growth that Sanogo has shown as a player over just a few weeks is amazing, and I am sure he will continue to improve the rest of the season.

Jackson has displayed exciting offensive abilities and athleticism since returning against Seton Hall. He had six points, four rebounds and two assists against Providence in 28 minutes. Jackson made a number of highlight-reel plays, including another memorable dunk and a few difficult passes. He is an inconsistent shooter and still pretty raw on defense, but I think Jackson is arguably the most athletic UConn player besides Bouknight and will be essential to any success the team has the remainder of this season.

The James Bouknight Experience

After it was announced Bouknight was not playing, Hurley said in the post-game interviews that an outside surgeon had operated on Bouknight to take out his bone spurs, and that he wasn’t close to returning. Suffice to say, it was frustrating to hear Hurley only reveal this information about the surgeon now, and have his statement contradict the previous ones that Bouknight would be a game-time decision for each game before his return. Now we cannot know when exactly Bouknight will get clearance to play this season if at all (I would guess it will beanother week at the earliest), and have to speculate on how the question of when Bouknight returns is affecting his teammates. I have to imagine that they are frustrated about how to approach games and prepare with his status up in the air, and that their struggles without him are only eroding confidence. Hurley needs to help his team cultivate the idea that the rest of the season is their oppurtunity to prove how good they can be without Bouknight, and that this will result in UConn elevating its play and beating tough opponents. That way, it will again be prepared to again be one of the best teams in the Big East when Bouknight returns.